For Willy Woo, the bitcoin rebound does not signal the end of the bear market. The on-chain analyst believes that a bullish trap is forming, while BTC has not yet reached its low point. Its reading is based on liquidity, because the current movement looks less like a lasting reversal than a simple market surge.
In brief
- Willy Woo warns that Bitcoin's rebound may just be a false start.
- For the analyst, the bear market remains well established and the low point of BTC has not yet been reached.
- The recent increase appears to be more of a technical jump than a real change in cycle.
- Bitcoin could therefore still reserve a new movement of weakness before a more solid recovery.
Willy Woo sees a bull trap before a real low point
Willy Woo believes that bitcoin could experience a short-term rebound capable of misleading the market before a new decline phase. In his message published on Saturday, the analyst mentions a “A bullish trap is forming” and specifies that this movement could last “until the end of April”. He adds that his reading is based on liquidity conditions, and not on a simple price level. Woo also specifies that he will happily change his mind if capital comes back massively with the right profile of long-term investors.
In the process, Woo describe bitcoin like “firmly ensconced in the midst of its bear market” from a long-term liquidity perspective. He recalls that after periods of sudden decline, BTC often tends to move sideways before attempting a rally towards resistance zones. It is precisely this type of configuration that fuels the risk of a false restart, where a technical rebound can be interpreted too quickly as a trend reversal.
- Bitcoin had fallen about 46.82% from its October all-time high of $126,000;
- BTC is currently trading at $66,974;
- Over 30 days, the asset still showed an increase of 3.74%;
- Woo considers that this level does not yet correspond to the market low point.
Other market signals reinforce caution
Around this reading, other indicators point in the same direction. Santiment observes that small holders are returning to buying below $70,000, while whales are selling aggressively. The platform summarizes this imbalance with a clear formula: “the correction is not yet complete”. Its tracking also shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC gave up around 66% of the bitcoins accumulated after the move towards $74,000. This dynamic gives Woo's warning another dimension. The market can still produce a rebound, without the purge work being completed.
The situation becomes even tougher with the readings from other analysts. CryptoQuant judges that bitcoin remains in a bear market despite the recent rally, with a Bull Score Index at 10 out of 100, described as deeply bearish. For his part, Benjamin Cowen believes that 2026 looks like a bear market year and does not see new all-time highs over this period. Added to this is the return of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to the extreme fear zone, at 18, after a brief rise to 25 a few days earlier. Even if Woo notes that investor flows are in “regular recovery” since mid-February, all of these signals have outlined a market where the recovery remains fragile, contested, and exposed to a new bout of weakness.
The signal remains fragile. For Willy Woo, the rebound observed is not enough to invalidate the underlying trend, while the price of bitcoin is still evolving in a market under tension. What happens next will depend less on a one-off surge than on a lasting return to liquidity and confidence.
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