Bitcoin enters the end of February under pressure, with market sentiment reaching historic lows. Sellers are regaining control, whales are getting active, and comparisons with the 2022 bear market are multiplying. Should we really expect a return to around $50,000?
In brief
- Bitcoin fell below $65,000 at the weekly close, with a low of $64,258.
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached a historic score of 5/100, a sign of extreme fear in the market.
- Whales dominate inflows on exchanges, suggesting further massive sales.
- On-chain data reproduces the pattern of the 2022 bear market, with an alarming bearish confluence.
Bitcoin below $65,000, pressure that won’t let up
Sunday evening, as soon as the weekly close, the sellers took orders. BTC/USD quickly fell below $65,000, hitting a low of $64,258 according to TradingView data.
Since then, the price has attempted a slight rebound before falling again. BTC stands at $64,560 at the time of writing, confirming the persistence of selling pressure, with drop of almost 5% over the week.
On the traders' side, opinions differ on what happens next. The Castillo Trading account sees this pullback as an opportunity to go long, targeting a rebound towards $78,200, building on the short point of control (nPOC) located around $64,979. BitBull, for its part, mentions a bullish target of $76,000 before a relapse.
But the picture is not rosy for everyone. Trader Roman remains firmly bearish: “ Increasing volume while price is falling is the very definition of a strong downtrend. » He anticipates a plunge towards the $50,000 to $52,000 zone.
THE CoinGlass data confirm the ambient nervousness, with nearly $500 million in liquidations in 24 hours across the entire crypto market.
Geopolitics, inflation and whales, an explosive cocktail
Beyond the charts, it is the macro context that is worrying. The new customs duties imposed by Donald Trump, combined with tensions with Iran, are creating a shock wave across all risk markets. US stock futures opened the week lower, and bitcoin was not spared.
Trader CrypNuevo sums up the mood: “Bearish uncertainty. » He envisions the wick closing below $60,000, with a target of $61,000 within two to three weeks. The upcoming publication of the January producer price index (PPI) adds further pressure, the last two readings had surprised on the rise.
On the on-chain side, the signals are just as worrying. On CryptoQuant, contributor GugaOnChain reveals that the “Exchange Whale Ratio” exceeds 70%.
Historically, this level precedes massive sell-offs. Old coins are returning to platforms en masse, while short-term holders suffer losses. Result: abundant supply, few buyers, and a price under pressure towards $60,000.
CryptoQuant's AVWAP indicator adds a final caveat: the last time such a bearish confluence was observed after an ATH was in May 2022, at the start of a brutal bear market.
With the Fear & Greed index at 5/100, its lowest level ever recorded, the market is screaming capitulation. As analyst Cryptoinsightuk wrote: “People gave up. » Yet, in the history of bitcoin, periods of extreme fear have often preceded the most violent reversals. The real question is not whether BTC will rebound, but from what depth it will do so.
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