Bitcoin is going through a rough patch, but the numbers could tell a different story. Economist Timothy Peterson has just published an analysis that attracts attention: according to him, the probability that bitcoin will end the year higher than its current level is 88%. Enough to revive hope, or fuel the debate.
In brief
- Economist Timothy Peterson estimates an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher in December than it is today.
- Over the past 24 months, 50% have seen positive returns for Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,000, 25% below its level at the start of 2025.
- Analysts remain divided: an imminent rebound for some, a bottom in October 2026 for others.
50% of the last 24 months have been positive for Bitcoin
This Saturday, Timothy Peterson shared an analysis that quickly got people talking. The economist specializing in digital assets published on X an indicator that he monitors closely: the number of positive months recorded by bitcoin over a rolling period of 24 months.
His observation is clear. Over the past two years, exactly half of the months have posted gains for bitcoin. This ratio, seemingly innocuous, nevertheless sends a strong signal: according to its model, it implies “a 88% probability that bitcoin will be higher in ten months », i.e. around December 22, 2026.
The figures support this reading. In 2025, BTC finished in the green in January, April, May, June, July and September, six months out of twelve. The other six ended in losses. A mixed performance, certainly, but sufficient to cross the threshold that Peterson considers to trigger his bullish signal.
A market under pressure, but reasons to believe in it
The context remains difficult. Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, after opening the year close to $80,000. The correction therefore exceeds 25% since January. And on the scale of the crypto market as a whole, the toll is even more severe: almost all of the gains recorded after the US presidential election of November 2024 have been erased.
The Fear & Greed index, a barometer of investor sentiment, displays a score of 9 out of 100, an extreme level of fear rarely reached. This climate pushes some analysts to be cautious. Trader Peter Brandt, a respected figure in the sector, believes that bitcoin “will only reach its true bottom in October 2026”.
Conversely, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, is betting on an imminent rebound. He notes that the current month closes with a strong increase, after five consecutive months of decline.
The Polymarket platform gives a 17% chance of December 2026 being the best month of the year for BTC, just behind November, historically the best performing month with an average return of 41% since 2013.
Ultimately, Peterson's signal doesn't guarantee anything, but it deserves attention. In a market where fear dominates, historical data reminds us that the most powerful reversals often come when no one expects them. Keeping a cool head remains, once again, the best strategy.
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