For the first time since 2022, bitcoin is sending a fundamental signal, a rare technical indicator that is attracting investor interest. This phenomenon, confirmed by the drop in profitable supply to 50%, could mark a turning point after months of volatility. What are the key levels to monitor and what strategies to adopt?
In brief
- Bitcoin displays a rare bottom signal in 3 years, with a profitable supply falling to 50%, a threshold historically linked to recoveries.
- Key levels to watch for BTC include support at $63,007 and major resistance at $71,672.
- Long-term buying opportunities for investors, short-term risk management and vigilance for continued volatility.
What is a bottom signal and why is it significant for bitcoin?
A background signal, or “bottom signal”indicates that an asset has bottomed out after a prolonged period of decline. For bitcoin, this signal is particularly relevant, because it coincides with a profitable offer falling to 50%! A threshold historically linked to bearish market phases. This phenomenon suggests that BTC holders have less incentive to sell, thereby reducing selling pressure.
Previous cycles, such as those of 2018, 2020 and 2022, show that this type of signal has often preceded significant recoveries. For example, after the 2022 signal, bitcoin experienced a gradual rise, despite an uncertain macroeconomic context. Additionally, indicators like the Pi Cycle Top Indicator confirm that the market is not overheating, thus reinforcing the idea of consolidation.
Bitcoin: Here are the price levels to watch today
Currently, bitcoin is holding above immediate support at $63,007, a level corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. However, key near-term resistance lies at $71,672. If this level is crossed, BTC could target $78,676! Then $85,680 to confirm a sustained recovery. Triggering a real bullish rally.
Conversely, if bitcoin fails to exceed $71,672, a return towards $63,000 remains likely, which would temporarily invalidate the bullish thesis. The STH/LTH (Short-Term Holder / Long-Term Holder) ratio also plays a crucial role. Currently high, it reflects increased participation by short-term holders, often synonymous with volatility.
BTC investment strategies
For long term investors, this background signal represents a potential opportunity. Historically, buying on such signals has often been rewarded with significant gains once the market moves higher. However, it is essential to diversify your portfolio to limit the risks associated with the persistent volatility of bitcoin.
Short-term traders, on the other hand, should take a cautious approach. Indeed, increased volatility and critical resistance levels require rigorous risk management. Especially since external catalysts, such as regulations, institutional adoption or technological innovations, could influence the market in the coming months.
Bitcoin's bottom signal in 2026 opens up interesting prospects, but also challenges for investors. Between buying opportunities and risks of volatility for BTC, caution remains in order. By monitoring key levels and adapting your strategies, you will maximize your chances of taking advantage of this market phase.
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