A sudden sale of 245,000 bitcoins by historical holders shakes the market, revealing an unexpected signal in a phase of intense macroeconomic tension. These investors, renowned for their solidity, have surprised even the most seasoned analysts. Is this a capitulation or a repositioning strategy? As monetary uncertainty persists and volatility sets in, on-chain indicators reveal a more nuanced reading.
In brief
- An exceptional sale of 245,000 BTC was triggered by historical holders, a first since December 2024.
- This massive sell-off occurred as Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, before rebounding above $70,000.
- Despite this sale, the overall supply of long-term holders continues to grow, due to the aging of the assets held.
- On-chain data reveals a possible stabilization phase rather than a bearish reversal.
Long-term holders are shaking up the market: a signal of capitulation?
Last week, a record sale of 245,000 BTC was triggered by long-term holders (LTH), investors known for their strategic patience.
The event, recorded as the price of bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, was qualified “an exceptional daily distribution level compared to the current cycle” by Glassnode analysts.
This massive distribution marks a high not seen since December 2024 and recalls similar episodes in 2019 and 2021, periods known to have preceded prolonged consolidations rather than a true bearish reversal.
Several important facts are worth noting:
- 245,000 BTC were sold in a single movement by LTH, the highest daily disengagement in more than a year;
- This exit occurred near a critical psychological level, just before the market rebounded above $70,000;
- Glassnode evokes typical behavior of correction phases, where historical holders adjust their exposure;
- The sales episode takes place in a context where spot volumes have increased significantly, suggesting rapid absorption by opportunistic buyers.
Despite this sudden sell-off, total holder supply continued to grow, going from 13.63 to 13.81 million BTC according to CryptoQuant. This development is explained by the very functioning of the LTH classification, which is based on the age of the cryptos.
Thus, while some tokens change hands, others reach the threshold of 155 days without movement, then entering the category of LTH. This phenomenon creates an illusion of stability, even growth, even in periods of strong redistribution.
Macroeconomic factors
Beyond on-chain data, the evolution of the macroeconomic context has largely influenced the dynamics observed. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of long-term holders, an indicator measuring the ratio between the sale prices and the purchase prices of Bitcoin, returned to the 1 mark at the start of the week.
This pattern signals that the latest sales were made at a profit, contrasting with a previous period of realized losses. Such a return above SOPR=1 is often interpreted as an indication of consolidation.
The markets are now suspended from announcements this Wednesday on the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States. Uncertainty around monetary policy remains high, with an 82.2% probability according to CME FedWatch that the Federal Reserve will not lower rates in March.
In this tense context, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, which flirt with 4.22%, continue to exert pressure on risky assets. The market is also anticipating an appointment of Kevin Warsh as head of the Fed, which could further harden the outlook for the crypto market.
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