Ethereum valuation could reach $20 trillion by 2035, analyst says

Ethereum (ETH) has been on a slow climb since late November, recovering from a drop to around $2,600, its lowest level since July. However, the cryptocurrency saw a sharp decline on Friday, falling almost 5% in a single trading session. Despite this volatility, research from long-term Ethereum investor William Mougayar indicates a strong long-term outlook. According to his analysis, the economic value of the network is expected to grow significantly, with the potential for total ETH valuation eventually reaching trillions, even as short-term fluctuations continue to put pressure on prices.

Rethinking the Value of Ethereum

Mougayar's report highlights that Ethereum is often valued with models designed for traditional, profit-generating technology companies. He proposes viewing ETH as a public good, similar to the fundamental protocols that underpin the Internet, such as TCP/IP. This mismatch, he argues, leads markets to underestimate Ethereum, since its real value derives from shared profits, open access and collective use rather than traditional revenue.

He further explains that most attempts to evaluate Ethereum since its inception have relied on narrow and misleading frameworks. Common approaches like revenue-based analysis, discounted cash flow models, fee-focused economic assumptions, and token supply comparisons do not reflect the true nature of the network. Ethereum is neither a profit-oriented business nor a platform, and Mougayar emphasizes that its true value can only be understood by viewing ETH as a public good.

A multi-level approach to valuation

The report presents an evaluation model which separates the total value of Ethereum into three layers often ignored by traditional measurements. The first layer captures the value already recognized by the market, including Ethereum itself, Layer-2 solutions, and major decentralized finance (DeFi) assets, with a combined estimate of $0.6-0.9 trillion.

The second layer assesses Ethereum-dependent economic activity, covering stablecoin transactions, tokenized assets, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and broader DeFi applications, with a potential value ranging from 300 billion to 3 trillion. The final layer takes into account the less tangible benefits provided by the network, such as reduced risk, fewer intermediaries and less exposure to fraud, estimated at between $150 billion and $600 billion.

Applying this three-tiered framework, Mougayar places Ethereum's current intrinsic value between $2 trillion and $6 trillion, while a conservative estimate places it close to $1 trillion today. Looking further ahead, if Ethereum develops into a global network of trust and regulation similar to the fundamental role of the Internet, its valuation could reach $10 trillion to $20 trillion by 2035.

Under a very optimistic scenario, if Ethereum reaches a scale of “public good at the Internet level” around 2030-2035, we can situate Ethereum's place on an analogous curve. This gives a plausible upper bound of $10–20 trillion, assuming Ethereum becomes the “trust and regulation layer of the global economy” by 2035.

William Mougayar

First signs of recovery in Ethereum trading

While Ethereum's long-term outlook appears strong, its current price remains under pressure. Analysts have noted early signs of a rebound. CryptoQuant's Maartunn reported improved taker activity on Binance, with net taker volume rising back to -$138 million after bottoming out at -$500 million during heavy selling pressure in late October.

Although still negative, this increase suggests that buyer takers are returning, hinting at the possibility of further upward momentum for Ethereum in the near term.