Bitcoin is faltering, and the warning signs are multiplying. As hopes of recovery fade, the market seems to be returning to the bearish patterns of old cycles. Major technical thresholds have given way, reviving projections of a return below $50,000. This scenario, long considered extreme, is gaining ground among seasoned analysts and traders. The prospect of a prolonged downturn is no longer a simple hypothesis, but it becomes a concrete risk for investors still exposed.
In brief
- Bitcoin is losing major technical levels, reviving the specter of a prolonged bearish scenario.
- Several analysts identify targets below $50,000, notably at $49,180.
- Critical indicators like the 21-week EMA or CME gaps reinforce the negative outlook.
- On-chain data reveals increased structural pressure, with a spot price lower than the average cost of recent holders.
Bitcoin breaks its supports: bearish targets now assumed
The bitcoin market is showing worrying signs of fragility since falling below $80,000, as the leading crypto exits the top 10 global assets. This threshold, perceived as a pivotal zone by many traders, no longer holds, giving way to much darker forecasts.
Several figures in the sector no longer hesitate to mention price targets that are significantly lower. “74,400 and 49,180 are the two big downside liquidity targets for this bear market”said on X account Cmt_trader, highlighting the possibility of a deep pullback as supports give way.
Technical indicators support this pessimistic reading. Several critical signals have been crossed in recent days:
- The loss of the 21-week exponential moving average (21W EMA): CryptoBullet has warned that “$BTC lost the monthly 21-EMA. It's over, you can't even imagine”a signal historically associated with a lasting bearish shift;
- Bull Market EMA Crossing: According to Rekt Capital, this pattern has already resulted in a 17% drop from $90,000 to $78,000;
- The lack of rebound despite technical zones: even the presence of a CME gap on the BTC/USD futures contract at $64,445 was not enough to provoke a significant return from buyers, reinforcing the idea of largely weakened momentum.
In this context, the immediate outlook is increasingly oriented towards a return to price zones close to those observed in the middle of a bear market, with few positive catalysts apparent to reverse the trend.
Structural pressure: towards a new prolonged bearish phase?
Beyond classic technical indicators, on-chain data supports the diagnosis of a market breaking a trend.
One of the key elements comes from the analysis of the price realized for BTC holders for 12 to 18 months. This threshold, considered the average purchasing cost, is today higher than the spot price. For CryptoQuant, this suggests unfavorable dynamics. “Historically, when the price falls sustainably below this average cost, the market goes from simple corrections to structural bearish regimes”, warns Crazzyblockk, contributor on the platform.
The platform notes that the realized price is stabilizing while acting as resistance. So, “when the price remains below a stable or rising realized cost, rallies tend to fail, as supply seeks to exit at equilibrium”continues the analysis. The combination of this factor with negative unrealized profitability and slowing balance growth constitutes, according to CryptoQuant, a typical alignment of extended bearish phases.
The price of bitcoin continues to cause concern, weakened by technical signals and unfavorable on-chain dynamics. If the current thresholds do not hold, a decline below $50,000 could emerge as a central scenario for the coming weeks. Investors remain on alert, watching for the slightest sign of a lasting turnaround.
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