Bitcoin Shows Strong Negative Correlation With USDT, Glassnode Says

In 2025, bitcoin and USDT play a key role in the crypto ecosystem, with dynamics that directly influence market movements. Glassnode reveals a negative correlation between these two assets, offering valuable clues for anticipating year-end trends.

Negative correlation between bitcoin and USDT according to Glassnode

Glassnode highlighted a marked negative correlation between the price of bitcoin and net USDT flows on exchanges. Indeed, when BTC rises, investors massively withdraw USDT from platforms, often to buy BTC or make profits. Conversely, during corrections, USDT flocks to exchanges, signaling profit-taking or an exit from the market.

Additionally, data shows net USDT outflows ranging from -$100 million to -$200 million per day during euphoric phases. During bitcoin's peak at $126,000, these outflows even exceeded $220 million on a 30-day moving average. These movements reflect investor confidence and serve as a barometer for market sentiment.

This negative correlation between bitcoin and USDT is explained by the fact that investors use USDT as a temporary refuge during corrections, then reinvest it in bitcoin during upswings. USDT flows thus become a leading indicator to anticipate BTC movements.

USDT Year-End Projections: What Are Analysts Saying?

Projections for USDT at the end of 2025 remain broadly stable, with consensus around a value close to $1. Analysts agree on minimal variations, between 0.99 and 1.02 dollars. Kraken, for example, predicts a slight appreciation to $1.01, while CoinGape anticipates a possible peak to $1.02. Several factors influence this stability:

• The GENIUS Act in the United States strengthens confidence in stablecoins by requiring liquid reserves and increased transparency;
• The launch of the USAT stablecoin, which could support the stability of USDT by providing a regulated alternative;
• The use of USDT for cross-border transactions and as a store of value, which limits the risks of prolonged depeg.

But, what impact will this stability of USDT have on bitcoin in December 2025?

The impact of USDT on bitcoin in December 2025: increase or correction?

Projections for bitcoin in December 2025 are mostly positive, with a dominant scenario placing its price around $100,000. Bitget, for example, anticipates a rise to $99,945supported by growing institutional demand and continued stability of USDT. This trend is supported by historical USDT flows, which suggest a recovery in demand after profit-taking phases.

However, Glassnode warns of short-term fragility. If USDT flows reverse and net inflows become positive, this could signal increased profit-taking and put downward pressure on the price of bitcoin. Vigilance is therefore necessary, especially if USDT begins to massively flow into exchanges. Investors will need to closely monitor USDT flows to anticipate BTC's next moves.

The negative correlation between bitcoin and USDT offers valuable clues to understand the dynamics of the crypto market at the end of 2025. With stable projections for USDT and an upward trend for BTC, investors have reason to be optimistic. And you, how do you plan to adapt your strategy based on these projections?