November 2025 begins under pressure for bitcoin, which shows a drop of 2% and worrying technical signals. Despite historically favorable seasonality, the market is struggling to rebound. What are the key factors explaining this trend? Analysis of the five major dynamics of the week.
In brief
- Bitcoin enters November 2025 down 2%, testing key supports at $100,000 and the moving average at $101,150.
- The positive seasonality of November (+40% on average) is absent for bitcoin, with market sentiment in “fear” territory.
- The Fed maintains a restrictive policy, limiting liquidity and isolating bitcoin from the stock markets.
- Institutional flows decline for the first time in 7 months, with net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and demand falling short of supply.
- Retail investors are pulling out, reducing active addresses by 26% and putting bitcoin at risk of correction towards $98,500.
A difficult week of trading: bitcoin under technical pressure
After the massive withdrawal of bitcoin from exchanges, BTC began November in decline, returning to $107,000. Traders anticipate a complex week, with a risk of a decline towards $100,000, a major psychological threshold. Technical analyzes highlight the fragility of the supports! Notably, the 50-week exponential moving average, located at $101,150.
Order books reveal critical liquidity zones between $105,000 and $106,000, as well as at $117,000. Experts speak of a range environment, where lateral movements could dominate. Caution is required, as a test of the lows could trigger an aggressive reaction from buyers or, on the contrary, increase selling pressure.
Disappointing seasonality: why the November rebound does not take place
Historically, November is a strong month for bitcoin, with average gains of 40% since 2013. However, in 2025, the cryptocurrency will show a negative performance of 2%. Prediction markets, like Polymarket, only give bitcoin a 33% chance of ending the month above $120,000.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains anchored in ” fear “reflecting gloomy market sentiment. Analysts note a resurgence of bearish predictions below $100,000. A sign that investor psychology could make the trend worse. Without a clear catalyst, bitcoin appears doomed to prolonged consolidation, far from seasonal expectations.
Macroeconomic context: between commercial hope and the Fed
Stock markets are benefiting from hopes of a trade agreement between the United States and China, but bitcoin remains outside this dynamic. The once-strong correlation between bitcoin and tech stocks is weakening, insulating crypto from traditional market movements. Additionally, the Fed maintains a restrictive stance, with only a 69.3% chance of a rate cut in December.
This uncertainty limits the liquidity available for risky assets, including bitcoin. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, describes the current phase of crypto markets as a “cautious calm”a healthy consolidation after the volatility induced by the Fed:
We view the current “cautious calm” in crypto markets as a phase of healthy consolidation after recent Fed-related volatility. This allows Bitcoin to stabilize around $110,000.
Declining institutional demand: an alarming signal for bitcoin
US bitcoin ETF net flows record three consecutive days of net outflows, a rare phenomenon. The BlackRock IBIT fund notably contributed to more than half of the outflows, totaling more than $500 million. For the first time in seven months, institutional purchases are lower than the newly mined supply, a historic bearish signal.
Analysts point out that this decline is reminiscent of the period before the local bottom at $75,000 in April 2025. The increasing maturity of the market, marked by the entry of sovereign funds and companies, could however mitigate the risks of extreme volatility in the long term.
Withdrawal of individuals: a dormant bitcoin network
The number of active addresses on the bitcoin network has fallen 26.1% since November 2024, from 1.18 million to 872,000. This withdrawal of individuals limits liquidity and prolongs market cycles. Furthermore, the NVM (Network Value to Metcalfe) ratio indicates an overvaluation of bitcoin relative to the size of its network.
Experts believe this overvaluation could lead to a correction towards $98,500. Without the participation of individuals, “strong hands” struggle to liquidate their positions optimally, which delays the natural end of market cycles.
Bitcoin is therefore going through a delicate period, marked by a technical decline, sluggish institutional demand and a disengagement of individuals. The next few weeks will be decisive in confirming or denying a rebound. Should we expect a return of buyers or a worsening of the downward trend?
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