Bitcoin gained $8 billion in one week, but ETFs are no longer doing well!

In the space of seven days, the realized capitalization of the asset jumped by $8 billion, marking a burst of on-chain activity rarely seen outside of periods of extreme tension. This indicator, which measures investments actually made, suggests a possible bullish return. However, despite this structural turmoil, the spot price of bitcoin remains frozen. A dissonance sets in between the internal movement of the network and the inertia of external flows.

An on-chain recovery masked by price stagnation

Over the past week, the realized capitalization of bitcoin increased by $8 billion, crossing the $1.1 trillion mark. This indicator, which measures the value of bitcoins at the time of their last transfer, indicates an intensification of movements on the network, despite the liquidation of 1.1 billion dollars.

According to CryptoQuant data, this increase is the result of active accumulation, mainly on the part of institutional investors. “On-chain demand is robust”, underlines Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, who attributes these flows to Bitcoin treasury firms and ETFs. This renewed activity, however, comes in a climate still marked by the after-effects of the $19 billion crash that occurred at the beginning of October.

Several indicators reinforce this reading of an underlying dynamic in the process of being rebuilt, despite an apparent stagnation in the price:

• The price of bitcoin has exceeded $110,000, reflecting an increase in the average cost of BTC recently transferred;

• Mining specialists are increasing their production capacities: the American Bitcoin company, linked to the Trump family, has invested $314 million in 17,280 new ASICs;

• The network's overall hash rate is increasing, which Ki Young Ju interprets as a clear long-term bullish signal;

• This all occurs in a market where on-chain flows are increasing, without a proportional price reaction on spot markets.

This gap between fundamentals and valuation reflects a paradox. Despite an improving technical and economic structure, bitcoin seems to lack sufficient relays to initiate a clear upward dynamic.

Temporary withdrawal of ETFs slows recovery

To understand this blockage, we must turn to the two catalysts that have largely driven the market in recent months: Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy's continuous buy strategy. These two sources of demand, once powerfully bullish, are now in decline.

“Demand is now mainly driven by ETFs and Strategy, but their purchases have slowed currently”warns Ki Young Ju in a post published on X. This slowdown in major institutional flows limits, according to him, any attempt at a lasting rebound. Until these channels restart, the market will remain under pressure.

Furthermore, the macroeconomic and geopolitical context continues to fuel a certain caution. The climate remains marked by uncertainty, despite announcements such as the trade agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. On the individual side, confidence has not yet returned. Sentiment indicators remain in the so-called zone of ” fear “ since the October crash, which reduces the likelihood of a short-term surge in demand.

According to analysts at the Bitfinex exchange, however, a trend reversal could occur if conditions align. They estimate that an inflow of $10 to $15 billion into ETFs, combined with looser monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve (with two rate cuts in the fourth quarter), could propel BTC towards $140,000 as early as November.