Trump strikes at the heart of the Russian economy

For the first time since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, Washington and Brussels are coordinating a series of major economic sanctions against Russia. Directly targeting the energy sector, these measures target Rosneft, Lukoil and gas exports. The goal is to dry up the revenue that fuels the Kremlin's war effort. This financial offensive marks a strategic turning point, with immediate consequences on the markets and expected repercussions on the Russian economy, already weakened by three years of international pressure.

Targeted sanctions

While the EU singled out crypto platforms in its latest sanctions package, Donald Trump imposed new economic sanctions on Russia in a major strategic move, directly targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, two giants of the country's oil industry. The action follows the Kremlin's rejection of a call for a ceasefire and peace negotiations.

Helima Croft, head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, describe this decision as “the most decisive step taken by the United States to turn off the Russian war spigot”.

The impact was immediately felt on the markets. Indeed, the price of Brent jumped by around 5%, reflecting fears of an imbalance in global supply. These sanctions directly target Russia's energy revenues, which represent about a third of its federal budget.

In a coordinated move, the European Union stepped up the pressure by adopting several key measures, which mark a rare transatlantic synergy:

• The gradual cessation of European purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas, estimated at $8.1 billion;

• The blacklisting of 21 foreign companies, mainly Chinese, accused of helping Russia circumvent sanctions;

• The addition of 117 ghost ships illegally transporting Russian oil to the list of 558 already banned;

• A strengthening of controls on financial flows linked to oil trade, with European representatives present in Washington during the American announcement.

European diplomats have said that if the two blocs implement these measures rigorously, the consequences for Russia could be “multipliers”. This new financial offensive marks an increase in power of the strategy of economic containment vis-à-vis Moscow, with a stated desire to close parallel circuits of financing the war.

An economy under pressure

Faced with this offensive, the Russian authorities are speaking out firmly, but tinged with concern. Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry, said sanctions “won't be a problem” and that Russia had built “strong immunity to Western restrictions”.

Dmitry Medvedev, vice-president of the Security Council, accused the United States of having “totally chose the path of war against Russia”. However, the figures reveal another picture. Russian growth, after reaching 4.3% in 2024, is now projected at just 0.6% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, according to the latest IMF forecasts. Inflation remains high, hovering around 8%, while the central bank maintains interest rates at a prohibitive 17%.

The signs of internal tensions are numerous. The Kremlin is dipping into its National Reserve Fund, increasing domestic bond issues and raising taxes, angering small businesses. The Opora association, which represents Russian SMEs, called the new tax increases a “shock for all small businesses”.

Manufacturing industries, ranging from tractor manufacturing to furniture manufacturing, are beginning to scale back their activity. Despite some agility in hiding its exports through parallel fleets and diverted sales to China and India, two influential members of the BRICS alliance, Russia is unable to fully offset the impact of Western sanctions.

If alternative circuits make it possible to limit certain short-term effects, the structural consequences accumulate: progressive deindustrialization, loss of investments, budgetary fragility. The Kremlin's resilience strategy is reaching its limits in the face of an increasingly synchronized Western coalition. For economic observers as well as for geopolitical actors, the coming months promise to be decisive in the evolution of the Russian position, both militarily and economically.