Despite a slowdown in American growth and the trade tensions linked to Donald Trump policies, JPMorgan has assumed optimism for American actions. The bank provides for a notable increase in the S&P 500 in the next 12 months, carried by the resilience of large companies and a favorable tax framework.
In short
- JPMorgan anticipates high yields for the S&P 500 despite the economic slowdown.
- 82 % of the companies in the index exceeded the expectations of profits in the last quarter.
- Large companies adapt better to customs tariffs than SMEs.
JPMORGAN is on a surge in the S&P 500
JPMorgan bases its optimistic forecasts on an impressive quantified reality. In the last quarter, 82 % of companies in the S&P 500 have surpassed the expectations of analysts in terms of profits.
Even more revealing, 79 % exceeded their turnover targets. These performances mark the highest levels since the second quarter of 2021.
This resilience contrasts strongly with macroeconomic indicators. US annual growth forecasts have dropped 2.3 % to 1.5 % since April.
The labor market slows down and inflationary pressures persist in the manufacturing sectors and services. However, the S&P 500 jumped more than 28 % in four months.
According to JPMorgan Asset Management, the Global profits forecast For this year and next year are now upwards. The market seems to better identify companies capable of failing the game in the face of the new conditions of the trade war initiated by Donald Trump.
Initially, expectations were tabling on an increase in profits less than 5 %. They are now 11 %, a sign of a major revision. This leap illustrates the exceptional capacity of large American companies to adapt quickly to new economic and commercial realities.
Tax and strategic levers that boost the prospects
The new configuration of the US trade is digging a marked gap between listed giants and SMEs.
Small and medium -sized enterprises, more directly exposed to end consumers, see their forecast forecasts stagnating. Their supply chains, not very flexible, limit their ability to quickly react to customs duties increases.
Conversely, large multinationals transform these constraints into growth levers. Apple is an emblematic example: despite the presidential announcement of a 100 % potential tax on imported semiconductors, the group obtained exemptions.
Better still, the company announced an additional investment of $ 100 billion in the United States, triggering a 9 % increase in its action in one week.
The “One Big Beautiful Act” (OBBA) accentuates this competitive advantage. This new regulations offer an immediate 100 % tax depreciation for qualified investments, a system that analysts consider it capable of massively stimulating the investment expenditure of large groups.
For JPMorgan, the champions of technology, finance and public services have decisive assets: critical size, strategic flexibility and control of regulatory risks. So many elements that place them on the front line to take advantage of the new economic environment.
The bullish forecasts of the Bank for the S&P 500 therefore rely on a paradoxical reality: in a context of trade tensions and economic slowdown, large American companies display a brilliant health. A dynamic that could, by training effect, also benefit the markets of cryptocurrencies in the coming months, strengthening appetite for all risky assets.
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