Energy Value predicts a bitcoin at $ 167,800 in the coming months

Would Bitcoin be sold? A key indicator, “Energy Value” of Capriole Investments, believes that his “Just value” reached 167,800 dollars, or 45 % above its current course. Designed by Charles Edwards, this model is based on the energy power mobilized by the network. The unprecedented gap that it reveals to relaunch the debate on the real valuation of the assets and on the market capacity to fill this delay in the coming months.

The energy “fair value” of Bitcoin according to Capriole Investments

While the Hashrate of the Crypto Reine has come close to a record, carried by a mining which has become profitable, Charles Edwards said in a publication this Thursday on the social network X: “ Bitcoin should be negotiated up to 167,800 dollars per unit if its price fully reflected its energy value ”.

Founder of Capriole Investments and creator of this metric in 2019, Edwards recalls that its calculation is based on three elements: the energy consumed by the network, the growth rate of the offer and a constant representing the value in dollars of this energy.

According to him, the market today massively underestimates the assets, while the hashrate has reached a new record at 1.031 Zettahash per second on August 4, proof that the computing power initiated by mining companies has never been so high.

Glassnode data confirm This trend:

• The average energy value: around $ 145,000 according to the simple moving average of the Energy Value;

• The current price: around $ 116,000, a discount of about 31 % compared to this estimate;

• Historical comparison: “We are today more distant from this value at $ 116,000 than in September 2020, when Bitcoin was worth 10,000 dollars”underlines Edwards;

• Recent evolution: a decline of around 10 % since the last historic record last month.

This observation reveals the growing discrepancy between the robustness of technical fundamentals and market behavior, accentuating the interest of investors for this metric in the analysis of the right valuation of Bitcoin.

Market signals and reduced time horizon

Beyond the simple comparison between price and energy value, other indicators deliver an optimistic reading for mining specialists. The signal ” buy “ From the Hash Ribbons metric, triggered at the end of July, remains in force, reflecting an environment favorable to the profitability and the pursuit of mining operations.

“A constant energy intake represents a balance between supply and demand”indicates Capriole Investments. Historically, a lasting increase in the price encourages mining companies to increase their computing power, thus improving the energy efficiency of the network and strengthening the value of the long -term Energy Value.

This equation can however turn around if the energy commitment was decreasing, for example in the event of a drop in the hashrate. There “Fair Value” Calculated would then fall, reducing the current gap with the market price.

Several analysts believe that the current cycle in progress would only have a few additional months, which leaves little time to Bitcoin to fill this differential. The story also recalls that when the price climbs too quickly without parallel increase in the energy invested, it tends to return to its energy value, often in a brutal way.

The unprecedented difference between the price of bitcoin and its energy value underlines both the solidity of its technical fundamentals and the uncertainty inherent in speculative dynamics. If the hashrate continues to progress, the scenario of a partial or total catch -up to the“Fair Value” seems credible. However, the temporal window mentioned by several observers requires also considering the opposite risk: that of a market unable to follow its own fundamental indicators before the end of the current cycle.