Crypto markets are preparing for a decisive day with the simultaneous expiration of more than $ 5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options. This massive deadline comes as Bitcoin has crossed new historical heights beyond $ 118,000. But what do these data reveal on the state of mind of investors and what movements to anticipate?
In short
- More than $ 5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expired on Friday, creating potential prices.
- The maximum level of Bitcoin pain is $ 108,000, while Ethereum aims $ 2,600.
- Put-to-Call ratios greater than 1 reveal a mixed feeling between optimism and prudence.
- Speculative activity reaches extreme levels with lever effects of 500x.
Bitcoin and Ethereum in the face of a critical deadline of 5 billion
The latest data published by Deribit draw up an impressive table: $ 4.3 billion in Bitcoin and $ 712 million in options on Ethereum are expired on Friday. This volume far exceeds that recorded on July 4, which amounted to $ 3.6 billion.
For Bitcoin, 36,970 contracts mature, with a 1.06 put-to-clear ratio, a sign of a fragile balance between lower and upper positions.
The level of maximum pain-that is to say the price around which losses are the most important For options of options – is at $ 108,000. It is at this threshold that the majority of contracts will expire without value.
Ethereum is not to be outdone, with 239,926 contracts due to a slightly higher Put-To-Call ratio, at 1.11. Its maximum point of pain is estimated at $ 2,600, a level significantly lower than its current course, which is around 2,970 dollars.
This configuration reflects palpable tension on the markets. Traders oscillate between the euphoria generated by recent summits and caution in the face of a possible technical correction.
According to maximum pain theory, prices may tend to get closer to these critical levels as expiration is approaching.
This deadline comes as Bitcoin evolves above $ 118,000, reaching a new historic record. Ethereum, on the other hand, continues its rally at $ 2,978, up 8 % over 24 hours, after a peak beyond 3,000 dollars.
These levels, much higher than the maximum pain thresholds, accentuate the pressure on the open positions.
Contradictory signals in a survival market
According to Greeks.live, no clear consensus emerges on market management. The operators seem to react more to immediate news than to technical or fundamental signals, making the price movements particularly unpredictable.
Even more worrying: the rise in extreme leverage strategies, up to 500x. A risk taking that certain analysts call “suicidal”. These positions considerably amplify volatility and can cause cascade liquidations in the event of a brutal reversal.
Currently, Bitcoin is exchanged around $ 118,300, well above its critical threshold. This could exert short -term down pressure, market makers having every interest in bringing prices back to maximum pain levels.
Nevertheless, the solidity of the fundamentals, in particular institutional accumulation, could contain any brutal correction.
Ethereum, for its part, shows impressive resilience. Its upward dynamics could continue, carried by the rise of tokenization. According to TOKEN TERMINAL, more than $ 6 billion in real assets are now tokenized on its blockchain, consolidating its status of reference infrastructure in decentralized finance.
In short, the expiration of this Friday is part of a maturation phase of the Crypto market. While some projections target a bitcoin at 130,000 dollars, this deadline may represent only a technical break in an always bullish underlying trend. The experienced traders will have every interest in observing closely the first post-expiration signals, to anticipate the potential movements of the weekend.
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