The drop in mortgage rates marks an unexpected break. While the market was restarting a restart, the curves freeze, thwarting the forecasts. This reversal intrigues buyers as much as investors, taken between hopes and uncertainties. Why don't the rates go back, despite a more flexible monetary context? This blockage questions the dynamics of funding in France and reveals deeper tensions, at the very moment when real estate tries to get out of dumb.
In short
- Real estate credit rates have ceased to drop for three months, despite a resumption of sales in the old one.
- After reaching more than 4.5 % at the end of 2023, rates came down to around 3 % in spring 2025, then frozen.
- This stagnation is explained by the prudence of banks, which prefer to preserve their margins in an uncertain economic context.
- This new deal forces buyers and investors to rethink their medium and long -term financing strategies.
Rates that freeze despite a market resumption
While loans explode again in France, credit interest rates have been stagnating for three months. This stability contrasts with the downward dynamics initiated at the end of 2023, where rates had reached summits at more than 4.5 % for loans aged 20 and over.
Carried by this progressive relaxation, the real estate market has found a certain vigor. The volume of transactions in the old increased by 8 % in the first half of 2025. The BPCE observatory estimated Even that the year could end on 959,000 sales, 85 % of which would concern the old one. However, while the fundamentals seemed to be gathered to prolong the lower movement, the rates have frozen.
Current stagnation is explained by a combination of economic and behavioral factors. Data from banking barometers clearly show that the decline movement has been stopped, leaving room for a landing:
- Rates for credits over 20 years are now stabilized around 3 %, after a sharp drop since their peak at the end of 2023;
- Real estate prices remained generally stable, limiting leverage for borrowers;
- Banks, despite a more dynamic market, have not adjusted their scales for several months, favoring a controlled profitability approach;
- The borrowing conditions have softened considerably ”, but without giving rise to new drops since spring.
In short, if borrowers benefit from more favorable conditions than in 2023, the reflux of the rates seems to have reached a technical floor, at least in the short term.
Towards a structural normalization of banking conditions
Current lull is no cyclical coincidence, but the fruit of a deeper change in banking policies. Thus, the main brokers such as youfinance or CAFPI has observed stabilization of scales since spring 2024, which continues in 2025.
“The rates remain unchanged in most banks”, noted So you are in his monthly point published in early July. The average levels are now around 3.20 % over 20 years, or even 3.35 % depending on profiles. This apparent calm masks a more selective logic in the granting of credit.
Banks remain in commercial conquest, but more target the files they consider to be strategic. Julie Bachet, director general of Toufinancer, explained thus: “Banks remain in conquest of customers while more targeting the profiles that interest them”.
This results in occasional, but limited offers: reduced rate for first-time buyers, improved loans for accommodation well rated at DPE or energy renovation projects. CIC, Crédit Mutuel, LCL or Banque Populaire offer specific formulas under conditions below the market, but these initiatives remain targeted and packaged. Apart from these privileged profiles, standard rates no longer evolve.
This new balance seems durable. The governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau, recalled it in early June on France 2: “We will not find the exceptionally low rates around 1.5 % that we had four years ago”.
In this climate of loansing credit and instability of borrowing conditions, some investors turn to alternatives not correlated with conventional banking rates. Bitcoin, in particular, gains visibility as an active refuge and diversification tool.
Its decentralization, its independence from monetary policies and its direct accessibility attract a growing fringe of savers, tired of the slowness of traditional financing. This renewed interest highlights a change in heritage strategies, at a time when classic credit levers are struggling to reactivate.
The prospect of a return to the floor rates therefore moves away definitively, despite a resumption of the real estate market. For borrowers, this means that current conditions, between 3 % and 3.5 %, could become the standard. If this stabilization can reassure in the short term, it also requires a revision of long -term strategies, both for individuals and for investors.
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