The United States and China continue trade negotiations on Tuesday

While Washington and Beijing again open a diplomatic channel in London, tensions on rare earths and semiconductors threaten the overall balance. Faced with the Chinese delegation, Washington displays its firmness. Donald Trump, faithful to his style, sets the tone: “China is not easy”. Behind this formula, a reality is emerging: neither of the two camps seems ready to give in on issues as strategic as explosive.

Negotiations in London: a high -tension strategic dialogue

Trade discussions between the United States and China have resumed in London, in the History Lancaster House, with the aim of appeasing growing tensions around technological trade and critical raw materials.

On Monday, for more than six hours, the delegations of the two countries met behind closed doors. On the American side, the delegation was led by Scott Bessent (Secretary of the Treasury), Howard Lunestick (Minister of Commerce) and Jamieson Greer (Trade Representative).

Donald Trump, questioned in the White House the same day, has summary The situation by a double -edged formula: “We are doing a good job with China. China is not easy “. In addition, he adds : “I only receive good reports”.

According to the first public statements, the discussions were qualified as “Fruitful” by Lunick, and “Good meeting” By bessent.

The points discussed during this meeting reflect first -rate strategic issues for the two countries. According to information available, the United States is considering softening several recent measures which aim to restrict exports of critical technologies, provided that Beijing softens its own limitations on rare earth exports.

More specifically, Washington would be willing to remove certain restrictions taken in recent weeks, in particular:

• The prohibition to export semiconductor design software;
• Restrictions on parts of reaction engines for civil use;
• Limitations relating to certain sensitive chemicals;
• The blockages on nuclear materials used for civil purposes.

In return, the United States is waiting for China, one of the influential members of the BRICS Alliance, releases its controls on rare earth exports, of which it provides almost 70 % of world production.

These materials are essential in highly strategic sectors, ranging from smartphones to nuclear reactors, including military equipment and green technologies.

Conditional negotiations: de -escalation or new phase of tensions?

If the first day of discussions ended without an official declaration on the part of Chinese representatives, certain signals were interpreted as a desire for dialogue.

He Lifeng, Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the delegation, abstained from any comments at the exit of the meeting, just like Wang Wentao, the Minister of Commerce, however very involved in the recent state visits of Xi Jinping.

The lack of public declaration of the Chinese party contrasts with the voluntarily optimistic communication on the American side. However, no concrete announcement has yet been made with regard to the reductions or modifications of the restrictions in force.

If reciprocal concessions were to take place, they would probably intervene in camera, without media bursts. The fact that discussions resume on Tuesday morning, in the same place, confirms, however, that common ground is at least explored.

One of the points of friction remains the very nature of the exports referred to in the restrictions of the United States: semiconductor design software, in particular, affect the heart of the technological competition between the two countries. In this context, each measurement is perceived as a warning or opening gesture, depending on the timing and the tone used.

If these negotiations lead to a reduction in restrictions such as the suspension of surcharges for 90 days, this could lighten the pressure on certain technological supply chains and, indirectly, stabilize certain segments of the digital industry. Conversely, a failure would strengthen the technological decoupling already underway between the two giants. For markets, including cryptos, this could mean an increase in volatility, a withdrawal to assets deemed refuge, or on the contrary, a relative lull.