The American economy, this giant who once seemed indomitable, waits today on a tightrope, between exacerbated trade tensions and loss of inner confidence. If some spoke at a simple gale, the storm may well be unexpectedly violence.
In short
- The US economy vacillates under the weight of trade tensions and inner confidence at half mast.
- Growth forecasts plunge, while the threat of a recession settles in a long -term.
- American decision -makers engage in a race against the clock.
A pressure economy: when the illusion of resilience crumbles
The last Bloomberg barometer is not a fairy tale. In a few months, forecasts darkened: 45 % of a recession in the year, against only 30 % before.
A figure which slams like a whisk in the ear of optimists. The growth expected for 2025 would only reach 1.4 %, and 1.5 % the following year, forecasts far from the expected momentum.
The main culprit? A trade war relaunched with massive customs duties, notably towards China, this essential partner who has become an economic adversary. Households, which form the beating heart of theeconomy American, start to get off. Their expenses, a real fuel of GDP, slow down, suggesting less euphoric aftermaths.
To this pressure on domestic demand is added a generalized loss of confidence. Companies, taken in vice between tax uncertainty and costs of costs, hesitate to invest. Even the American consumer, usually unimportant, is starting to look at his wallet with concern.
Customs prices, exports at half mast: America folds up, the world holds its breath
Current trade policy looks like a hazardous poker game. With prices reaching historical heights (near 23 %, according to Bloomberg Economics), imports have temporarily exploded – companies seeking to fill their stocks before the tax reaches its full effect.
But this artificial excitement masks a darker trend: that of a prolonged drop in exports, penalized by reprisals from Asia and elsewhere.
Added to this is an increasingly alarmist IMF, lowering its forecasts of global growth and pointing to the domino effect that these protectionist measures could cause. Because if theeconomy American coughs, the rest of the globe is likely to catch the flu.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is preparing to publish decisive figures on GDP. Unless a diplomatic miracle or a dazzling inner recovery, these results are unlikely to reverse the steam.
In summary, what was going on yesterday in the shadows is now played in full light: the American economy, once the engine of global dynamism, slips towards a slower slower than expected. China, for its part, throws oil on the fire by betting on gold and cryptocurrencies, at the expense of the greenback. One thing is certain: the cards are now in the hands of political decision -makers … But time is running out, and the patience of the markets, it could well reach its limits.
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