Donald Trump caused an economic shock wave by announcing significant customs duties aimed at almost all countries in the world. The figures presented by the White House are the subject of in-depth analyzes by experts and arouse questions among the trade partners of the United States.
Figures widely exaggerated in relation to reality
The American president presented his plan on April 2 on April 2, which imposes at least 10% customs duties on all products imported into the United States.
During an official presentation, the Trump administration justified these measures using tables indicating that American products would be taxed at 67% in China, 90% in Vietnam and 39% in the European Union.
According to Several experts in international trade, these rates differ considerably from commonly documented customs duties.
For the European Union, for example, data from the European Commission and the World Trade Organization (WTO) establish that the average tariff rate with the United States is less than 5%.
Even in the automotive sector, often quoted as an example, where the EU applies a 10% right on American vehicles, the difference remains significant with the 39% figure mentioned by the president.
These notable differences between the statistics presented and conventional data raise questions about the methodology used.
A calculation methodology that encompasses much more than customs duties
How to explain these statistical differences? The American administration has provided details on its evaluation method.
According to the explanations of the White House, their approach is not limited to traditional customs duties, but integrates what Donald Trump designates as “other forms of cheating”.
This methodology takes into account factors such as what the administration considers the handling of currencies, as well as various environmental standards applied by certain countries.
For example, the European ban on importing American chicken washed in chlorine for many years is considered a commercial barrier in these calculations. This method considerably extends the field of counted elements, which explains these abnormally high rates.
Trump calculation methods questioned by economists
Faced with these figures, several economists express reservations about the methodological validity of the calculations presented.
According to a professor of economics from the University of Columbia quoted by several media, the percentages put forward by the Trump administration would correspond to a simplified mathematical formula: the trade deficit divided by American imports for each country concerned.
According to this expert, this method does not reflect customs duties actually applied and deviates from the usual standards for assessing commercial barriers.
Analysts point out in particular the case of the Heard-et-Macdonald Islands, an uninhabited archipelago near Antarctica, which is among the 185 territories targeted by the new customs tariffs.
This inclusion raises questions about the rigor of the established lists, since this territory does not generate any economic activity.
These pricing measures arouse concerns about the financial markets, some analysts seeing it as a risk of recession. While the Trump administration evokes a “liberation day”, many economists fear the emergence of a cycle of commercial reprisals for world repercussions.
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