Bitcoin begins the week against the backdrop of economic and technical uncertainty. While the symbolic threshold of the $ 82,000 is struggling to hold, investors scrutinize market signals. Between geopolitical tensions, disturbing technical indicators and hopes of a bullish reversal, here are the 5 elements to watch closely this week.
Bitcoin: 5 things to know at the beginning of April
In addition to the domination of Bitcoin which drops to 58.8 %, the first crypto shows this week signs of technical fragility … Investors hold their breath. In a context loaded with uncertainty, several key signals could influence its trajectory. Here is what to understand.
Bitcoin in the face of a lower signal: the “Bearish Engulfing” is essential
The weekly Bitcoin graphic recently displayed a “Bearish Engulfing” candle, a dreaded technical signal indicating a downward potential reversal. This figure was formed while the BTC ended the week around 81,200 dollars, its lowest level in two weeks. The traders remain cautious, evoking a compression between the exponential mobile averages at 50 days and 50 weeks, generally pioneer of explosive movements.
Some see this decline in Bitcoin as a simple breathing in a wider bull market, others read shortness of breath. The market is on the razor thread and the evolution of this technical figure could define the April tone.
On April 2, a new turning point in the American trade war?
Tuesday, April 2, the United States could strike hard with a new salvo of customs tariffs, nicknamed by Donald Trump “Liberation Day”. Up to $ 1,500 billion in imports could be affected, according to The Kobeissi Letter. This commercial hardening could create a shock wave on risky assets, including Bitcoin.
To this is added a busy week On the macroeconomic front: employment data, Jerome Powell speech and Fed key publications could strongly influence the perception of the markets. The economic uncertainty index reaches heights, making reactions unpredictable. Traders remain alert: this week could tip everything.
A disappointing first trimester for bitcoin
With a decrease of 12.7 % in the quarter, Bitcoin has signed its worst first quarter since 2018. The decline from the January summit exceeds 30 %, while gold, it connects records. However, according to Glassnode data, this correction remains modest with regard to the previous cycles, some having experienced drawdowns greater than 60 %.
Despite this relative underperformance, some analysts, such as Daan Crypto Trades, believe that the quarter “was not so terrible”. The lack of volatility could also play in favor of progressive restart, as soon as the macro context improves. But for the moment, prudence dominates.
The MVRV ratio calls for vigilance
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value), used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, currently tends towards its historical average. This decline reflects the release of an overheating area, which began after a “Death Cross” observed in early March. If this signal has often preceded price reductions, it does not yet indicate a final hollow.
For analyst Yonsei Dent, the market imitates past behavior, but remains exposed to a new correction. In the absence of a clear recovery signal, Bitcoin investors must remain cautious. A sustainable recovery could however include if the ratio rebounds after having touched its historical support.
American investors keep hope: the return of the premium cornerbase
The “premium coinbase”, an indicator of the confidence of American investors, is again approaching the neutral level. After a period marked by panic sales, this stabilization shows a renewed interest in bitcoin in the United States. Cryptoquant underlines that this resilience in the face of the bearish pressure could announce a trend reversal.
A premium positive has historically accompanied the durable bullish market phases. If this dynamic is confirmed, it could mean that institutional buyers are back, ready to accumulate BTC at price levels which they deem attractive.
A fall back to the $ 72,000? What a course for Bitcoin this week
This week, the Bitcoin trajectory could oscillate between tension and opportunity. If the threshold of $ 80,000 were to give in sustainably, a withdrawal to the supports at $ 76,000 or even $ 72,000 should not be excluded, in particular under the effect of macroeconomic uncertainties and the volatility induced by the new American tariff measures.
However, stabilization of the BTC over the key mobile averages could revive the bullish momentum. Investor investors should adopt a cautious approach these days: monitor volumes, avoid impulsive purchases and consider progressive entries in well-identified withdrawal areas. Patience will be queen.
This week promises to be decisive for Bitcoin and the CAP of 80,000 dollars remains the psychological threshold to be monitored. Between trade tensions, ambiguous technical signals and macroeconomic expectations, investors sail in a fog of uncertainty. And to make sure not to fix this April which has already been eventful, Bitcoin minors will have to face a major challenge, which could seriously affect their profitability.
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