China hoped to restore its economic coat of arms with gestures of appeasement towards the United States. Las, despite a partial reduction in customs duties, the prospects remain dark. The Chinese economy vacillates, trapped in its own inertia and an icy world situation.
In short
- The drop in prices between Beijing and Washington did not rekindle the Chinese economy, still in pain.
- Between falling exports, relaunching the idle and the world frozen world market, China vacillates.
- Faced with an icy situation, Beijing hesitates, and investors lose confidence.
Chinese economy: a bitterness de -escalation with a bitter taste
We would have believed in a breath of optimism. A breath of fresh air in a climate leaded by years of Sino-American commercial tension.
But the drop in customs tariffs recently started between Beijing and Washington will have been a mirage in a desert of uncertainties. The Chinese economy, far from straightening its head, sinks into a dead end where the revival is struggling to point its nose.
On the surface, relaxation seems real. The two giants apparently relaxed their positions. However, behind diplomatic smiles, commercial mechanics remains seized.
BCA Research analysts Do not go there by four paths: a real commercial agreement, sustainable and structuring, is not for tomorrow. Worse, the effects of tariff de -escalation seem insignificant in the face of the gravity of the opposite winds.
China faces a triple wall: an announced contraction of its exports, a notable delay in recovery policies, and growth that no longer convinces anyone.
The economy, a long -boiled engine of the Chinese ascent, seems to be slowing down today despite the signals of pricing peace. Too warm peace too late.
Growth trapped between political prudence and market realities
What is played out here goes beyond the simple question of prices. Behind the accounting lines and the forecasts, it is a whole economic strategy that turns out to be out of breath.
Beijing, a long time master of his trajectory, now seems to be to contain a global dynamic that escapes him. The slowdown in international trade spares no one, but it strikes China with a particular intensity.
The indicators are there, cold and implacable. Exports decline, the order books are emptying, the investment intentions collapse. And meanwhile, Beijing Procective.
The recovery measures expected-fiscal, monetary, structural-arrive at the dropper, when they do not remain dead letters. Result: the markets, which had so much bet on a rapid recovery, begin to be disillusioned. During this time, the BTC is good.
Analysts warn: Chinese actions have not yet integrated the reality of degraded growth. The estimated profits could melt as snow in the sun, like the 2018-2019 trade war.
But this time, without the powerful lever of a state ready to spend without counting. The Chinese economy, despite its giant appearances, finds itself walking on eggs. It is tempting to believe that the Chinese economy will rebound, as it has often done. But this time, the context is new.
The global situation is tightened, the dollar threatens to regain ground, and investors flee risk like plague. Beijing, for the moment, seems to hesitate between political prudence and economic necessity. An unstable balance which could well precipitate the Chinese economy in an extended period of weakness.
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