Inevitable war between Europe and Russia

The USA-Ukraine summit was held recently in Riyadh and has led to more ambitious than expected truce proposals. “The ball is now in the camp of Russia” has become the element of American language on this issue. Meanwhile, Europe seems to speed up its recovery in military hand in an increasingly tense geopolitical context.

The truce between Russia and Ukraine pending

The summit of Riyadh, led by Marco Rubio, marked a turning point in the peace negotiations in Ukraine. Unlike pessimistic expectations, discussions paved the way for a potential truce that would go Beyond the initial requests of Zelenskyincluding not only airspace, but also land fights.

Vladimir Putin's response was quick. Appearing in military uniform, he spoke of the reconquest of the Koursk region while posing conditions for this truce which equivalent to a Russian total victory, What he has not yet obtained in the field.

He essentially asked that all the conditions that led to the war be deleted, which would amount to yielding to Russia the annexed oblasts, but not entirely conquered, The fall of the Kyiv regime, and NATO's decline.

This situation reveals that, unlike certain analyzes, Trump did not give up everything to Putin. Negotiations seem to be blocked on the territorial issue, the Americans appearing to leave Russia only what it already holds, without additional concessions.

Europe, alone in the face of Putin Russia

Meanwhile, Europe does not slow its rise in military power. On the contrary, we observe a growing will of strategic autonomy which is now extending beyond simple opposition to Russia, also to encompass a form of resistance to American ambitions on Greenland and Canada.

Analyzes circulate on the overall military power of Europe which, if it were unified, would potentially exceed that of the United States in land forces. This dynamic is powered by several factors:

• A growing distrust of Trump's policyespecially after its declarations on the possible annexation of Greenland and Canada;

• L'French strategic interest Historically favorable to a more independent Europe;

• The need for Emmanuel Macron of Get his coat of arms after his electoral difficulties.

This European “momentum” is not new. From the first Trump presidency, a media campaign already had three threatening “wolves”: China, Russia and the United States. It was the emergence of a European nationalism which was also defined against America.

European project flaws

Despite this aspiration for strategic autonomy, Europe faces democratic fragility major. The situation in Romania is symptomatic: the ban on Callin Georgescu to present itself in the election, followed by a similar measure against its replacement, reveals a deep democratic crisis.

These measures, taken in the name of the fight against Russian interference, paradoxically nourish instability that they claim to fight. As pointed out Jd vance“If your democracy can be threatened by a small interference such as buying a candidate, you have an internal problem of detecting your ruling class. »»

This situation illustrates the internal flaw Who could prove to be fatal in the event of a conflict: when a population prefers to see their country lose a war if it allows you to get rid of its elites, rather than patriotically supporting a victory that would maintain these same elites in power.

Against Russia, towards a Europe power?

The idea of ​​a power power, capable of competing with the United States and Russia, is attractive. It would offer many advantages:

• A more favorable economic positionbecause superpowers attracting talents and capital;
• A Development of French innovation on a continental scale;
• Of the armaments which would return more to France;

However, the emergence of such power seems unlikely without a deep transformation. Europe is already largely federal with A single currency And most of its law from the European Commission.

Towards an inevitable conflict?

The most worrying scenario would be that of a direct confrontation between Europe and Russia in Ukraine, especially if the United States decided to withdraw from the game. A defeat or even an expensive war of wear could then trigger this internal revolution in Europe.

Even more worrying, even a European victory against Russia could lead to a subsequent conflict with the United Statesespecially around the question of Greenland and Canada. The most likely outcome would then be a form of “Vassalization” of Europe by the United States.

The optimistic alternative, which is the emergence of a “western power with two heads” where Europe and the United States would coexist as equal partners, Unfortunately seems unrealistic in the current context.

The path to a power and sovereign Europe exists, but it is strewn with pitfalls whose outcome could well be, paradoxically, increased dependence on the United States rather than a real emancipation. Especially since the United States is technologically distanced Europe, especially on the subject of Bitcoin.