After a decade of exceptional growth, the economy of India shows signs of breathlessness. Government forecasts announce a growth rate between 6.3 % and 6.8 % for 2025, in clear decline compared to the 8.2 % of 2023-2024.
A cyclical slowdown in a dynamic economy
India, fifth world economic power, crosses a transition phase. In the first quarter of 2024-2025, GDP growth slowed down to 6.7 %, its lowest level in 15 months.
This slowdown is explained By several cyclical factors, including elections and a strong heat wave affecting the north of the country. Agriculture was particularly impacted, with growth reduced to 2.7 % against 4.2 % the previous year, while the tertiary sector slowed from 10.7 % to 7.2 %.
Employment remains a major concern: at the end of 2023, 45 % of 20-24 year olds were unemployed, according to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy.
To face it, Narendra Modi, re -elected for a third term, strengthens his initiatives “Make in India” and “an self -sufficient India” in order to accelerate industrialization. These efforts are starting to bear fruit: in 2024, India attracted a quarter of world industrial investments.
Persistent structural challenges
The current slowdown highlights deep structural weaknesses. Persistent inflation and global trade tensions slow down growth. Despite a recent diplomatic warming, relations with China remain a source of concern, especially due to the mega-barrage project in Tibet.
India is also struggling to integrate fully into world trade, with import rights reaching 18.1 % in 2022, according to the World Bank.
To relaunch its economy, New Delhi is preparing measures to stimulate consumption and private investment. Its ambition is clear: to make India an economic power developed by 2047, the year of its centenary of independence.
Despite this slowdown, the IMF remains optimistic and forecasts growth of 6.8 %, greater than that of China (4.6 %). Faced with these challenges, India relies on artificial intelligence and plans to develop its own generative AI model from 2025.
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