While everything seems to be pointing towards a six-figure Bitcoin, it's not for tomorrow yet. Markets are predicting an imminent surge, but market realities are imposing a final brake. Behind the scenes, the battle between ETFs and long-time investors is redistributing the cards. The $100,000 mark remains the ultimate psychological challenge for the flagship crypto, with predictions setting imaginations ablaze.
Bitcoin: A dynamic that upsets predictions
If 2023 was an exceptional year, 2024 promises an even more spectacular rise in the price of bitcoin. According to Kalshi's data, BTC has an 85% chance of reaching $100,000 by the end of the year. And that's not all: 9% of analysts even predict bitcoin flirting with $150,000, while a few optimists are betting on a delirium of $250,000.
Why this enthusiasm? The explanation lies in the convergence of several signals:
- An increase of 55% over the last quarter of 2023;
- A market capitalization potentially of $2.5 trillion;
- Massive absorption of selling pressure by ETFs (90%, according to Glassnode).
As the Kobeissi Letter summarizes, “ the markets are already integrating an explosion towards $100,000 », and the current figures border on the irrational. But this euphoria rests on a fragile balance: old HODLers, attracted by monstrous profits, could slow down progress through massive sales.
Crypto investors: Between hope and profit-taking temptations
Bitcoin ETFs are the center of the gameattracting record volumes. The data shows a historic week with flows reaching over $100 billion in assets under management. Yet, it's not enough to calm the enthusiasm of former investors, ready to cash in after years of waiting.
Glassnode observes that unrealized gains reach critical heightsand a correction would even be healthy to stabilize the market. However, another factor comes into play: fierce competition between institutions and individuals. The latter, galvanized by the opportunities, fear massive profit-taking which could crush the current momentum.
“ History repeats itself often, but never in the same way », say the experts. The upward momentum remains the strongest in a long time, but we will have to avoid getting out of control if we hope to see 2025 crown a historic bull run.
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