After a subtle rise, Bitcoin faces selling pressure threatening its short-to-medium term support. Let's analyze together the future prospects for the BTC price.
Status of Bitcoin (BTC)
After bouncing back to $60,000, the price of Bitcoin unfortunately came under selling pressure when it reached $67,000. Indeed, it is from this price level that Bitcoin countered its rebound, calling into question the recently established upward pressure. This price reaction thus continues to underline the importance of $67,000 (see analysis of April 22, 2024).
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $63,000. Although this drop may seem worrying, we observe a weakening of the bearish momentum, demonstrating some support from buyers. Nonetheless, Bitcoin rejected its resistance along with its 50-day moving average, which naturally continues to sow doubt about whether the uptrend will continue in the medium term. Concerning the dynamics of this same trend, we see that it continues to decrease, which indicates a decline in interest in the parent cryptocurrency.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)
After a decline, open interest on BTC/USDT contracts increased slightly before stabilizing over the past two weeks. This demonstrates a balance between buyers and sellers on Bitcoin perpetual contracts. As for liquidations, they were not very significant. However, it should be noted that the latest increases have caused slight liquidations in shorts, reflecting a certain pessimism on the part of investors. Finally, it is worth highlighting the fact that the funding rate associated with BTC/USDT contracts continues to oscillate between positive and negative. This indicates that these contracts are aligned with Bitcoin, which could suggest a reduction in optimism.
The heat map of liquidations over the past three months shows that BTC/USDT has rebounded to a notable liquidation zone, located around $62,000. It appears that buying interest has emerged at this level, suggesting a period of bullish reversal. However, it appears just below the still relevant $61,500 zone. Further down, the area between $58,000 and $59,000 is also of note. Above the current price, the areas of $67,000 to $68,000 and then higher, the price range between $71,000 and $74,000 are also important. If the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.
Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
- As long as the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $60,000, we can anticipate a break of $67,000. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be in a price range around $70,000 and $71,000. Even higher, we can note the $74,000. At this point, that would represent an increase of more than 16%.
- If the price of Bitcoin does not remain above $60,000, we could envisage support for buying interest around $58,000 – $57,000. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $52,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 17%.
Conclusion
The price of Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase above $60,000. It thus experiences fluctuations alternating between rebounds and selling pressure, which reflects persistent uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. Despite signs of support from buyers, the possibility that the price of Bitcoin will give in to its support is naturally considered. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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