It appears that the downward pressure linked to the GBTC ETF is fading a bit. Do we glimpse the resumption of the Bull Run for bitcoin?
Grayscale’s shadow still looms over bitcoin
In total, 118,000 bitcoins were absorbed by the nine ETFs to which the SEC gave the green light on January 10.
However, the upward impact is non-existent due to the Grayscale ETF which simultaneously sold 96,000 bitcoins. Its clients are not satisfied with its management fees, which are almost eight times higher than those of the competition.
To put these figures into perspective, note that only 13,500 bitcoins were mined at the same time. BlackRock has already absorbed the equivalent of the miners’ monthly harvest in just eight days.
Knowing that this harvest will decrease by half in April due to the halving. We will increase from 27,000 BTC mined each month to 13,500.
This Thursday, January 25, 10,871 bitcoins left the GBTC ETF. That’s a drop of 15% over the last seven days for the ETF which still contains more than 510,000 bitcoins…
As we explained previously, it is likely that this exodus will continue for a while. In fact, 87% of bitcoins would have to be withdrawn for Grayscale to no longer find itself in financial trouble.
In other words, it is not impossible that the bleeding continues for another 40 working days. That is, eight weeks of bearish pressure.
However, it seems that things are settling down. Here are the outflows from the GBTC ETF:
“Only” $394 million left the GBTC ETF this Thursday. That said, inflows into other ETFs have also slowed.
We step back to jump better. The demand shock will eventually arrive, sooner or later. Clients who have left Grayscale are simply waiting for the tide to begin to rise before rotating into the new ETFs.
The return of FUD
FUD is making a comeback with on the one hand the old sea serpent Mt. Gox, and on the other hand the sale by the American government of bitcoins representing the equivalent of 130 million dollars.
This is part of the bitcoins seized in the “Silk Road” affair. This $130 million is just a drop in the bucket, but let’s not forget that 144,000 bitcoins were seized in total. That’s the equivalent of $5.6 billion.
Let’s also not forget that the US government holds a total of 215,000 bitcoins:
Let’s bet, however, that the United States knows perfectly well that it would be a serious mistake to sell all these bitcoins.
Regarding Mt. Gox, some customers reported receiving yen payments to their Paypal accounts last December.
Concerns resurfaced very recently following a email from the Japanese authorities suggesting an acceleration of reimbursements. When, at what pace? We do not really know.
But we’re still talking about 142,000 bitcoins, 143,000 BCH and the equivalent of $467 million in yen that should finally return to their owners.
Will these 142,000 bitcoins be sold immediately? Probably not. Mt. Gox customers have had ten years to accumulate more bitcoin… It is therefore not impossible that this reimbursement to all these OGs represents only a small bonus in their eyes.
In the short term, all eyes are on the GBTC ETF. The stabilization of bitcoin outflows at a low level will signal the return of the bull run. Still a little patience. Hodl!
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