The prediction markets draw a new landscape for artificial intelligence. While Chatgpt seemed unshakable, Kalshi's data revealed a surprising upheaval: 57 % of bettors now bet on Gemini to become the best textual AI model by the end of 2025.
In short
- The bettors of Kalshi massively place their bets on Gemini with 57 % of the positions, against 20 % for Chatgpt.
- Google capitalizes on the recent updates of Gemini and the difficulties of its competitors.
- A volume of $ 7.4 million was recorded on this prediction market.
Gemini is ahead of his rivals in kalshi bets
Gemini's breakthrough on Kalshi is not by chance. Google has multiplied strategic updates in recent months, attracting the attention of investors and strengthening its credibility in the face of competition.
On August 15, the Mountain View group unveiled a series of innovations : a “history book” mode, a reinforced reasoning model and temporary conversations, thoughts to protect the confidentiality of users.
The results were quickly felt. In the space of twenty-four hours, the positions in favor of Gemini jumped from 48.1 % to 57 %, digging a significant gap with its rivals.
The launch of Gemini 2.5, presented as a “thinking” AI, capable of analyzing in depth before responding, still consolidated this dynamic.
Thanks to a processing capacity of 1 to 2 million tokens and an extended multimodality (text, image, audio, video, code), the model directly targets developers and businesses in search of performance and reliability.
The figures confirm this rise in power. Gemini 2.5 rises at the top of human preferences according to LMARENA and displays 63.8 % on SWE-BENCH VERIFIED, a particularly solid coding score. A technical excellence that contrasts with the difficulties encountered by Openai.
Indeed, the controversial launch of Chatgpt-5 aroused a wave of criticism, forcing Sam Altman to publicly defend his product in the face of an increasingly skeptical community of users.
This prediction scenario will be finalized on December 31. The winning model will give rise to the payment of the stages, and LM Arena will check the result. To date, the recorded volume already reaches $ 7.4 million.
The battle of technological giants intensifies
While Google strengthens its positions, its competitors chain the missteps. Grok, the XAI model, crosses a zone of turbulence. Accused of political bias, he had to withdraw several controversial publications, some of which deemed scandalous after seeing Adolf Hitler's praise.
These slippages, widely relayed by international media, have seriously started the confidence of users and led to a drop in its rating on Kalshi, from 18.8 % to 15 %.
Conversely, Chatgpt keeps a solid position. Although in decline in predictions, it still has 43 % of global market shares, proof of the loyalty of its community and the efficiency of an interface that has proven itself.
But the dynamics change quickly. New actors come to shake up the established order, like Deepseek. Its prover 2 model, specialized in mathematics, displays a dazzling progression of +195 %, redrawing the balances of an effervescence sector.
Beyond technology, a battle for data and regulation
Competition is no longer limited to linguistic models: it now extends to access to strategic data. The surprise offer of $ 34.5 billion filed by Perplexity to buy Chrome, the flagship browser from Google, is a perfect illustration.
Even OPENAI follows the file closely, confirming that control of online information flows has become a decisive lever to train and refine the new generation AI.
In this bubbling context, regulators redoubled vigilance. The antitrust authorities of the G7 envisage measures to contain the dominant positions, while Google and Meta are already faced by legal proceedings which could slow their ambitions.
These regulatory pressures recall that the Battle of AI is not only technological: it is also institutional and political.
So, Paris on Kalshi Translate much more than a simple speculative craze. They highlight a real change in power relations in the world AI. Gemini has undeniable technical assets, but his destiny will depend as much on regulation as on geopolitics and user confidence.
By 2025, the AI race may well take the appearance of a new technological cold war, where each misstep will be paid at a high price.
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