After falling more than 23% from its ATH, Bitcoin has rebounded and is once again positioned above $60,000. Let's analyze together the future prospects for the BTC price.
Bitcoin (BTC) price situation
After breaking through the $60,000 support, bitcoin hit a low point more or less around $57,000. This level was a bearish target highlighted in the April 27, 2024 analysis. The latter sparked buying interest that propelled it above its former short-to-medium term support at $60,000. It was upon reaching $64,000 that the price of the cryptocurrency generated selling pressure which led to a period of consolidation in the form of a range below this level. Namely: we can confirm the importance of this level, being an area of significant value.
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is trading around $62,300. Although the underlying trend remains bullish, the rejection of its resistance at the same time as its 50-day moving average continues to sow doubt about the continuation of the trend. Regarding its dynamics, we see that it has rebounded slightly, but remains weak, indicating modest buying interest in the parent cryptocurrency.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)
Since mid-April, open interest on BTC/USDT contracts has remained relatively stable. This may demonstrate a balance between buyers and sellers on Bitcoin perpetual contracts. As for liquidations, they were not very significant. However, it should be noted that liquidations are mainly sales. This may reflect buying interest from investors, but obviously not strong enough to counterbalance that of sellers. Finally, the funding rates associated with BTC/USDT contracts continue to oscillate between positive and negative, indicating that the interest in these contracts is stable, being well aligned with their underlying.
The heatmap of liquidations over the past month indicates that BTC/USDT has crossed a significant liquidation zone around $65,000. Selling interest emerged at this level suggests a potential reversal to the downside. Currently, the cryptocurrency is approaching another significant liquidation zone located between $62,000 and $60,000. Below, the areas around $58,000 and between $57,000 and $56,000 are also critical. Above the current price, the areas of $65,500 and, more significantly, that of $67,500, are particularly marked. Even higher, the area around $71,500 deserves special attention. If the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.
Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
- As long as the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $60,000, we can anticipate a break of $64,000. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be in a price range around $67,000 and $68,000. Even higher, we can note the $71,000 and more. At this stage, this would represent an increase of more than 14.5%.
- If the price of Bitcoin does not remain above $60,000, we could consider support for buying interest once again at $57,000. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $54,000. Further down, we can note the famous level of $52,000 or even $51,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 18%.
Conclusion
Although Bitcoin has seen rebounds beyond $60,000, persistent resistance and modest buying momentum keep its price in a consolidation phase, casting doubt on a continuation of this latest rise. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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