3.1% growth in the third quarter: The United States surprises the markets

The United States surprises with economic performance well beyond expectations for the third quarter. According to Commerce Department data, gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3.1%, compared to an initial estimate of 2.8%. This result exceeds observers' forecasts and reflects a dynamic economy, driven by strong household consumption and an improvement in exports. While many regions of the world are struggling to maintain their economic momentum, as evidenced by the growth forecast limited to 0.7% for the euro zone in 2024, this progression provides information on the resilience of the American economy in the face of global uncertainties. These figures also highlight the impact of recent monetary decisions by the Federal Reserve, which has fostered an environment conducive to growth through adjustments in key rates.

Rapidly accelerating American growth

The US Department of Commerce announced that US economic growth reached 3.1% in the third quarter of 2024, surpassing initial forecasts of 2.8%. This result also exceeds the expectations of analysts, who expected stability around the previously estimated level. Such performance is mainly based on two key factors: an increase in exports and an acceleration in household consumption expenditure, which increased by 3.7%, compared to an initial estimate of 3.5%.

To better interpret these data, it should be remembered that the annualized rate, the preferred method in the United States, makes it possible to project quarterly developments over the entire year. This sheds more light on the solidity of American economic fundamentals in a context where other economies are struggling to find momentum. For comparison, the Eurozone only forecasts growth of 0.7% in 2024 according to the European Central Bank, underscoring the growing gap between the two regions. However, the American dynamic is not homogeneous. Private investment, which is a traditional engine of growth, has been partially revised downwards. This decline could indicate areas of fragility in the economy, which would require particular vigilance for the months to come. Such nuances reinforce the interest of an in-depth analysis of this exceptional growth.

Market implications and projections

The financial markets reacted favorably to the announcement of this economic performance. As soon as Wall Street opened, the main indices recorded notable increases. Thus, the Dow Jones rose 0.67%, the S&P 500 posted an increase of 0.77%, while the Nasdaq jumped 0.97%. These figures reflect the optimism of investors, encouraged by the lasting strength of the American economy despite global uncertainties.

In this context, the Federal Reserve adjusted its forecasts for 2025. On December 18, it anticipated growth of 2.1%, a figure slightly higher than previous estimates. This readjustment is part of a measured monetary policy strategy. The institution, while continuing to lower its key rates, signaled a slowdown in this cycle. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the approach taken will be “cautious”, with only two further cuts planned in 2025, compared to four initially planned.

Furthermore, inflation projections have also been modified. The PCE index, a key indicator for assessing inflationary pressures, is now estimated at 2.5% for the end of 2025, before returning to 2% in 2026. These adjustments reflect the Fed's desire to find a balance between stimulating growth and controlling inflation. However, this monetary prudence could also signal a recognition of the challenges ahead, particularly on the ability of the economy to maintain this pace without creating imbalances. These prospects thus raise the question of the sustainability of the favorable conditions which have driven this remarkable growth.

These adjustments reflect the Federal Reserve's efforts to reconcile robust growth with controlling inflation. If the forecasts come true, the American economy could continue to play a leading role on a global scale, which questions the viability of such dynamism in the long term. The next figures, expected in January, will be decisive in assessing the solidity of this trajectory and the possible adjustments necessary to maintain this balance between economic expansion and financial stability.