The future of Western aid to Ukraine is currently suspended by a series of uncertainties. On the one hand, the Kiel Institute, a renowned German research institute, warns of a possible drastic reduction in financial support if Donald Trump were to return to the White House in 2025. On the other, Germany has announced its intention to halve its military contributions. In such a context, Ukraine could find itself deprived of valuable allies. What are the consequences for the geopolitical balance, and how can Ukraine meet this challenge?
A possible return of Trump: an earthquake for American aid to Ukraine
The 2024 US presidential elections could mark a turning point for Ukraine. If Donald Trump, who wants to make Bitcoin an economic weapon, returns to power, American military and financial aid to Ukraine could suffer a major blow.
Indeed, the former president has always shown a certain skepticism towards international commitments, and Ukraine is no exception.
Its intentions to reduce, or even cease, military and financial aid have never been hidden. Such a policy could hamper the US Congress's support plans, blocking any aid initiatives for kyiv.
The impact of this decision would be considerable. With nearly 100.2 billion euros in bilateral aid pledged, the United States ranks among the top contributors to Ukraine in the world.
This help is not limited to promises; in fact, 87% of the funds allocated by the United States are already on the ground in the form of weapons and military equipment. A reduction in this contribution would therefore mean for Ukraine an immediate loss of strategic resources.
This potential withdrawal of American support also raises the question of Western alliances. If America backs down, other countries around the world may be reluctant to continue their aid. Such a change could also influence the perception of other allies, particularly Europeans, already under pressure to revise their aid budgets downwards.
Germany announces the color
Across the Atlantic, Germany is following a similar trajectory. The German government recently revealed its intentions to halve funds for Ukraine from 2025.
If Germany does decide to reduce its military aid, the repercussions will quickly be felt, not only for Ukraine, but also for the rest of Europe.
By partially withdrawing, Germany is sending a strong signal: Europe could begin to refocus on its own priorities, to the detriment of international commitments.
The reduction envisaged by Berlin could encourage other European countries to review their own contributions.
Moreover, some European donors have already expressed hesitation about the sustainability of their support. The figures speak for themselves: military and financial aid, which would amount to 59 and 54 billion euros, could fall respectively to 29 and 27 billion, a drop of almost half, if Western support follow the example of Germany.
This announcement comes as the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky embarks on a European tour to try to rally renewed support. After a meeting with the British Prime Minister, he will meet the leaders of France, Italy and Germany. His message is clear: without continued international support, Ukraine could lose the momentum needed to continue its military and diplomatic actions. As the world follows this situation closely, European support remains crucial for kyiv.
Faced with these challenges, alternative solutions are being considered. The European Union, for example, announced a potential loan of 35 billion euros, financed by profits from frozen Russian assets. While this initiative may offer temporary relief, it cannot compensate for reductions in traditional bilateral aid. Pietro Bomprezzi, head of the Kiel Institute team, emphasizes that these funds remain palliatives, temporary solutions that will not meet Ukraine's needs in the long term. Meanwhile, China is collapsing.
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