The crypto market is going through a zone of strong turbulence. While Bitcoin slides dangerously below the symbolic threshold of $100,000, gold and silver shine brightly. Investors are turning their backs on digital assets to take refuge in commodities. But what explains such a reversal?
In brief
- Bitcoin has fallen more than 9% this month, falling below the psychological mark of $100,000.
- The main cryptos (Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin) recorded declines of between 11% and 20%.
- Gold and silver rose 4% and 9% respectively during the same period.
- Credit risks weighing on digital asset treasuries partly explain this weakness.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana… cryptos are stalling
Bitcoin is going through an unprecedented zone of turbulence. The world's first crypto has broken the symbolic threshold of $100,000, dragging the entire sector down with it.
Ethereum falls by 11%, Solana by 20%, while XRP limits the damage with a decline of 7%. This correction comes even as the dollar index slows its progression, a context normally favorable to digital assets.
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, points to a depletion of positive catalysts.
“ All grounds for optimism have been consumed “, he explains. The Fed has completed its monetary easing cycle, the US shutdown has concluded, and traders now find themselves without new support to justify purchases.
The real danger comes from elsewhere. Digital asset treasuries, those companies that have massively purchased bitcoin via convertible bonds, are facing a liquidity threat.
They are fighting for access to credit with states and artificial intelligence giants. If credit markets seize up, these companies will have to sell their cryptos to repay their debts.
“ A bearish spiral could be triggered », warns Magadini. “ Each forced sale would force other holders to liquidate their positions. » This systemic risk particularly looms over structures that have acquired volatile altcoins at their highest levels.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, nevertheless sees an encouraging outlook:
Despite this difficult period, Solana and XRP show significant rebound potential if key support levels hold. For Solana, the critical price is $135. XRP, meanwhile, could advance towards $2.50-2.75, supported by improving cross-border liquidity flows.
Gold shines on the ruins of the public debt
Precious metals experience a very different fate. Gold and silver are capturing flows of investors seeking safety in the face of deteriorating global public finances.
The observation is alarming: Japan has a public debt to GDP ratio exceeding 220%, the United States exceeds 120%, while France and Italy exceed 110%.
Robin Brooks, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, sees this surge in precious metals as “a symptom of a deeply flawed fiscal policy.”
The euro zone crystallizes these tensions, with heavily indebted countries influencing the decisions of the European Central Bank. China is not immune to this spiral, its total debt exceeding 300% of GDP.
This flight towards quality benefits even less followed metals. Palladium and platinum recorded gains of more than 1%. Investors are favoring these tangible assets in the face of regulatory uncertainty that is paralyzing the crypto sector.
A turnaround in sight?
History suggests that bitcoin could rebound. Analysts observe a lag of around 80 days between the movements of gold and those of bitcoin. Once the rise in the yellow metal stabilizes, the crypto could regain color.
JPMorgan is also maintaining its target of $170,000 over a six to twelve month horizon, based on a miner production cost established at $94,000. The next few weeks will be decisive.
The return of liquidity and the clarification of US monetary policy will determine whether this correction constitutes a simple breather or the start of a prolonged bearish phase. In the meantime, precious metals retain their status as undisputed safe havens.
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