
17 days after the halving of April 20, 2024, the price of Bitcoin is still not reacting positively. This event, which only occurs every 4 years, takes place in a still fragile crypto context. However, history shows that previous halvings have systematically propelled the price of BTC to new highs. What will happen this time?
A promising halving despite limited short-term impact
The 4th halving in Bitcoin history, which occurred on April 20, 2024, halved miner rewards, from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per mined block. Although this event temporarily impacted the network hashrate, the price of BTC did not experience a significant correction.
Evolving around $64,000 at the time of the halving, the Bitcoin remains at these levels 17 days after the event. Historically, halvings have always been followed by a strong appreciation of BTC in the medium term:
- 1st halving (Nov. 2012): the price of BTC multiplied by 100 in 1 month
- 2nd (July 2016): the price multiplied by 30 in 6 months
- 3rd halving (May 2020): the price multiplied by 8 in 12 months
This trend is explained by the decreasing supply of new bitcoins in circulation, combined with increasing demand. The increased scarcity of BTC naturally tends to increase its price.
However, as Goldman Sachs pointed out in a note to clients on April 12, one should not rely solely on past cycles. The 2024 situation differs considerably, with geopolitical tensions and high interest rates penalizing risky investments. This particular situation could mitigate the upward impact of the halving on the price of Bitcoin.
ETFs, growth catalysts for BTC
Beyond the dynamics linked to halving, Bitcoin should benefit from the rise of ETFs. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 gave the market a boost, propelling BTC to a new record in March at nearly $73,700.
Some experts, like the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, believe that the effect of these ETFs is still to come, with potentially $300 billion that could flow in from institutional and individual investors. A massive influx of capital that could cause the price of bitcoin to jump between $120,000 and $150,000.
In conclusion, although the recent halving did not result in an immediate surge in prices, Bitcoin remains firmly above $60,000. If the economy improves, nothing will prevent the queen of cryptos from crowning this halving with new records. What happens next could be explosive!
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