Behind the war of the prices started by Donald Trump hides a more opaque logic than it seems. Supposed to protect the American economy, this strategy also seems to be cut to seduce a privileged electorate. Why target so many sectors? Why maintain intense tariff pressure? If slogans speak of sovereignty, the choices sometimes betray much more targeted interests. And now that the surcharges are on break, the real question remains: what does Trump really look for?
In short
- China-USA surcharges suspended for 90 days after secret negotiations in Geneva.
- The global logistics economy remains disturbed despite the temporary reduction in American customs duties.
- American households always increase prices on imported essential products.
- China still refuses to modify its managing economic model in the face of American pressures.
Historical suspension of surcharge between the United States and China
During the night of May 12, at 6 a.m. French time, Most of the punitive customs surcharge between China and the United States was suspended. This decision marks a Unprecedented lull in the trade war. Washington brought back from 145 %to 30 %, while Beijing reduces its 10 %. Donald Trump praised this advance On Fox News ::
We have the framework of a very, very solid agreement with China.
The financial markets immediately reacted. The American clues have jumped. But this suspension is limited to 90 days. She leaves the hard points of the conflict unanswered. THE Discussions in Geneva allowed this break, but did not settle the major structural differences.
China always refuses any modification of its economic model focused on exports. Fentanyl remains a major apple. The risk of resumption of surcharge already hangs over the end of the summer.
Tariff war: a diplomatic lever or an economic trap?
The Geneva Agreement is presented as a turning point. It is based on a temporary price truce. But beyond the drop in rights, The tension remains lively. THE real tensions concern semiconductors, strategic metals, or even repressive measures against opioids. Analysts remain cautious. “” The jury has not yet returned its verdict “Warns Greta Peisch.
The delay is short. Negotiations are complex. Some voices call to reassess Trump's economic strategy. His method? Use prices as a geopolitical lever. But by doing so, does it not risk compromising the global economy? This break, as spectacular as it may be, could be only a diplomatic respite before a new escalation.
Logistics channels shaken by the trade war
The tariff war directly affected the business economy. Chinese commerce giants as Shein or Temu have seen their logistics turned upside down. The minimis threshold has been lowered, temporarily weighing down the conditions for direct import.
But the uncertainty hovers. Companies have stored en masse in the United States. Amazon has revised its supply flows. American customs are struggling to follow. The director of the WTO worries:
A global decoupling would be a disaster.
The global supply chain depends on a fluid economy. Gold Current rules push for fragmentation. In Asia, factories reorganize their production. In the United States, some companies are meeting their industrial strategy. But for how long? The delivery times are getting longer, the costs explode. And the consumer in all of this? He pays, in silence.
Household economy in the face of prices: who really pays?
On the side of American households, the effects are already felt. Prices are increasing on the shelves. Economists are alarmed by this pressure. “” This remains a huge disruption for basic necessities “, Clark Packard alert.
Applied taxation first penalizes modest households. In some states, 48 % of taxed packages go to the poorest areas. The measures also aim for fentanyl, but without net profit. Deliveries of drugs are slowed down. Even surgical gloves reach 100 %taxes. Here are some key figures:
- 30 %: current customs rate on most Chinese imports;
- 145 %: peak reached in April for taxes;
- 3 %: share of Sino-American trade in world trade;
- 8.1 %: increase in Chinese exports in April;
- 18 %: Decrease in Chinese imports in the United States.
The impact is obvious. And he just begins.
A pressure strategy that divides analysts
While cryptos like Ethereum climb, the world economy is suspended from Washington's future decisions. Experts evoke Unpublished commercial diplomacy. Trump uses prices as a permanent negotiation lever. But that is not enough. The agreement does not solve the question of intellectual property. Beijing remains adamant.
“” China will not change its economic model in 90 days “Said Robert Kuttner. The fentanyl crisis remains at the heart of tensions. Trump maintains 20 % of surcharges related to this file. The trade war goes beyond the economy. It relates to security.
Switzerland is trying mediation. Europe remains behind. Negotiations with India and Japan are suspended. Each discussion becomes more difficult. The consensus cracks. Trump's strategy opens the dialogues, but is slow to convince on the merits.
Trade tensions have overheat the markets and disrupted the economy in the United States, as elsewhere. However, an unexpected decline in American inflation surprised analysts. Should we see a strategic victory or a simple cycle effect? The economy remains at the heart of this global showdown. The continuation will be written on several fronts.
Maximize your Cointribne experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For each article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start accumulating advantages.
