Upcoming Unlock on Hedera (HBAR), Analysis August 29, 2023

Less than 15 days ago, the HBAR rebounded more than 15% following its integration into the US Federal Reserve platform “FedNow”. Let’s see the future prospects for Hedera.

Status of the HBAR

Since June, HBAR has been in an uptrend that may well be interrupted as its token unlock nears. Indeed, according to TokenUnlocks, Hedera will allocate 3.15% of its supply, or more than $60 million, to network governance, purchasing contracts and ecosystem development. Naturally, this phenomenon could have a negative impact on the price of the cryptocurrency insofar as these tokens could be sold.

The price of the HBAR has just passed below the 50 moving average on a daily basis. The latter is oriented upwards, but paradoxically crossed downwards with the 200 daily moving average. Oscillators point to bearish momentum supported by subtle bearish divergence.

Chart of HBAR/USD in daily time frame
Chart of HBAR/USD in daily time frame

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual aid around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on derivatives

According to Coinalyse, the HBAR’s open interest remains relatively high despite the fact that it has recently been revised downwards. This can be explained by a good number of liquidations caused by the latest bearish movement in the crypto market. Its funding rate is now negative. This may illustrate the selling pressure present on the “HBAR” contracts, the latter having a lower value than the underlying asset. Please note that each of these scenarios is not necessarily positive, but may paradoxically represent a buying opportunity if significant demand arises.

HBAR Aggregated Open Interest & Liquidations & Funding Rate Chart
HBAR Aggregated Open Interest / Liquidations / Funding Rate Chart

Assumptions for the course of the HBAR

. In the event that the price of the HBAR returns above $0.06, we could anticipate a bullish continuation to $0.07-0.08. If this zone is not a problem, HBAR could approach the psychological threshold of $0.10.

. If the HBAR fails to hold the $0.05 level, one could consider testing the $0.045 support. Unfortunately, if this level does not hold, the course of the HBAR could attack more or less quickly towards the zone of $0.035-0.040.

Conclusion

Hedara has the fundamentals to attract more investors, however the increase in its supply may prove to be a constraining factor for the price of HBAR. This is the reason why it will be important to carefully observe the reaction of the price on the different identifiable levels to confirm or not the different hypotheses made. Beware of potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each situation. It should also be remembered that these scenarios are based primarily on technical analysis. The price of cryptocurrencies can move more or less quickly, depending on other more fundamental factors

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