The crypto market is holding its breath as the latest polls show a significant decline in Donald Trump's chances of victory in the US presidential election. This development directly influences the prices of Bitcoin and the main altcoins, which are marking a pause in their recent rise.
A political reversal with immediate implications for Bitcoin
The Polymarket forecasting platform recorded a 4.5% drop in Donald Trump's probability of victory in just a few days. The former president, who until then maintained a comfortable lead with more than 60% chance of victory, saw his score drop to 58.1%.
This decline can be explained in particular by a loss of ground in crucial swing states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, although it maintains a lead in other key states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania.
This new political situation has not failed to affect the financial markets. A French trader reportedly placed a massive $38 million bet on Trump's victory, hoping for a potential gain of $80 million. This risky position illustrates the scale of the financial issues linked to this election.
The growing sense of uncertainty is pushing many institutional investors to review their positions. The data reveals a significant transfer of 180,000 BTC, previously held by long-term investors, to ETF buyers.
Immediate impact on crypto prices
Bitcoin, which reached $73,000 at the start of the week, quickly corrected below the $70,000 mark. This drop was accompanied by a sharper movement in the altcoin market, with Ethereum dipping below $2,500.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs record their first negative balance in eight trading sessions, despite the continued dominance of the BlackRock IBIT ETF, which totals more than $26 billion in inflows. This correction reflects increased caution among investors in the face of political uncertainty.
The market is also seeing an increase in leveraged positions, a sign of growing speculation around the election event. Experienced traders, like Peter Brandt, anticipate a possible continuation of the correction, while monitoring the crucial support at $2,480 for Ethereum.
This period of political uncertainty highlights the crypto market's continued sensitivity to major political events, serving as a reminder of the importance of prudent position management in this volatile environment.
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