While the American economy vacillates, Donald Trump won a strategic victory in the Senate thanks to the release of a controversial budget. Behind this success is looming a political confrontation at the world's repercussions. For investors as well as for crypto players, this vote opens up an uncertain sequence, likely to redefine financial balances and impact the trajectory of the markets.
An economical roadmap adopted in pain
Last Saturday, the American Senate, with a republican majority, adopted a major budgetary resolution after a tense night session, marked by an avalanche of amendments deposited by the Democrats.
This text, although it does not constitute an official budget, lays down the basics of Donald Trump's economic strategy for his mandate. Republican senator James Lankford welcomed the vote.
He said:
The resolution lays the basis of an increase in funds to secure the border, increase our energy domination, build a national defense, cut into unnecessary spending and prevent an increase in taxes on families and small businesses.
This vote symbolizes strong support from the republican apparatus around the main economic priorities of the president.
On the democratic side, the opposition is frontal. Chuck Schumer, chief of the minority, has denounced “” A brutal pincer taking on the part of the Republicans». He accuses the majority of sacrificing the middle classes.
According to him, the Republican senators acted “In total submission to Donald Trump», To the detriment of fundamental social programs. Concerns relate in particular to the social and fiscal consequences of the text, which could:
- Amputate the Medicaid program, essential for low -income Americans;
- Promote targeted tax reductions for billionaires;
- Strengthen protectionist measures already started by Trump;
- To open the way to a federal disengagement in several areas not specified in the text, but mentioned in parliamentary exchanges.
This first step, although important, is only crystallizing the ideological fractures between the two camps. It sets the tone for a large -scale budgetary confrontation, the concrete effects of which still remain to be defined.
A legislative impasse: worried markets and a threat of recession
The text voted in the Senate is however only half of the budgetary equation. A similar version must still be adopted by the House of Representatives. And this is where the differences are growing.
While the Senate plans about $ 4 billion in public spending, the version pushed by some chamber officials displays much more radical ambitions, close to $ 1,500 billion, in a logic of dismantling of federal agencies and massive reduction in state intervention.
At this point, the two chambers seem to be difficult to reconcile, which announces a possible legislative dead end. “”This resolution is a tax sinking“, Slice theCato Institutea libertarian think tank, which points to a major budgetary imbalance between uncertain revenue and scheduled explosion of expenses.
In parallel, the financial markets were quick to react. Donald Trump announced a new wave of customs duties on global imports on Wednesday, which immediately plunged the scholarships into the red and rekindled the fears of a recession.
This commercial hardening, combined with uncertainty around the financing of the federal budget, feeds a palpable nervousness with Wall Street. Added to this is one of Trump's major ambitions: making massive tax credits in 2017 permanent, a measure whose potential cost is estimated at more than 4,000 billion dollars over ten years.
The short and medium -term implications are multiple in this explosive context. On the one hand, the absence of a budget agreement could paralyze the federal administration, as was the case on several occasions under the previous mandates. On the other hand, the combination of budget deficits, tax uncertainties and global trade tensions could accentuate the dedollarization observed in certain emerging economies. For crypto investors, this instability strengthens both the attraction of alternative assets … but also increases the overall market volatility.
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