After a period of bearish pressure, Toncoin experienced renewed interest which is struggling to maintain itself. Let's look at the future outlook for TON price.
Toncoin (TON) situation
Toncoin has seen a meteoric rise, reaching an all-time high of $8.28. However, this level triggered strong selling pressure, causing its price to fall by more than 45%. The cryptocurrency has nevertheless found new life around $4.45, sparking renewed interest. The latest fluctuations in the TON then created a double dip pattern, often heralding a trend reversal. This figure was crossed upwards, allowing the price of Toncoin to reach the resistance of $6.8. Unfortunately, this threshold was not exceeded, leading to new selling interest which weighed on the price of the cryptocurrency.
Indeed, at the time of writing, the price of TON is around $5.46. Interestingly, this price level sits just above a notable value zone, itself located at the first monthly pivot support. The cryptocurrency thus recorded a bearish retracement of around 78.60% compared to its last daily impulse, naturally calling into question its short-term trend. However, it is essential to emphasize that medium and long term trends remain bullish. This outlook is supported by the bullish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages. However, all of these downward fluctuations have undeniably affected the positive dynamics of the cryptocurrency, impacting both its price and its oscillatory indicators.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on Toncoin derivatives (TON/SDT)
Open interest in TON/USDT perpetual contracts showed a correlation with the cryptocurrency's price decline, suggesting an exit from speculative positions. The CVD and financing rates, also revised downwards, reflect a certain pessimism among investors. On the liquidation side, the recent ones have been insignificant, indicating a relatively balanced market where buyers and sellers seem aligned with the current direction of the crypto. However, it is important to note that a historic peak in long position liquidations was recorded on December 9, reaching $7.6 million, according to Velodata data. This phenomenon could indicate a recent forced capitulation of buyers on the price of the cryptocurrency.
The heat map of liquidations of TON/USDT perpetual contracts reveals that the cryptocurrency has reached a liquidation zone which has visibly triggered selling interest, leading to a downward revision in its price. Now, the notable liquidation zones are on either side of the current crypto price. Above, we observe a large area around $7. Further down, a subtle zone is visible above $6. Below the current price, the most marked area is around $4.6. The price approaching these levels could result in a massive triggering of orders, increasing the risk of increased volatility for the crypto. These areas therefore represent a crucial point of interest for investors.
Toncoin (TON) price forecast
- If the price of TON remains above $4.45, a return to $6.8, or even $7.2, could be envisaged. If the upward movement continues, the next resistance would be around $7.7. Beyond that, the cryptocurrency's ATH could be reached just below $8.28, which would represent an increase of more than 51%.
- Conversely, if the price of TON fails to remain above $4.45, a decline towards $4 is possible. If the bearish movement continues, support could be found between $3.7 and $3.3. Lower still, the $2.7 level is notable. Such a development would represent a drop of around 50%.
Conclusion
Despite a marked correction and persistent selling pressure, Toncoin maintains bullish bases in the medium and long term. Its current position above a key area could pave the way for a recovery if conditions are right. Thus, it will therefore be essential to carefully monitor the price reaction at key levels to validate or revise current forecasts. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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