It's almost ironic that we live in a time where AI, once a mere science fiction fantasy, is now on the brink of rivaling human brains. According to Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, this futuristic vision could become reality as early as 2026. A bold statement that raises as much hope as concern. But be careful, the history of technology is full of sparkling promises that turned into fleeting sparks. So should we believe it or get our tin foil hats ready?
A frantic race to the top of AI
When Amodei talks about achieving PhD-like skill levels in the blink of a digital eye, ears perk up.
Comparing the evolution of the AGI to an educational journey, he emphasizes that if 2023 was the year of “high school students”, 2024 is that of “first university cycles” and 2025 could well be the equivalent of a doctoral thesis in a big school. All with quiet confidence: “We will get there in 2026 or 2027,” he declares.
This rapid progression, however, is underpinned by risks that crypto enthusiasts are familiar with.
Lack of data, limitations in the scale of clusters and geopolitical tensions threatening the supply of electronic chips are all stones in the shoe of this progress.
A detail that reminds investors that even the cryptocurrency market, subject to fluctuations as sudden as a roller coaster ride, can reflect these technological uncertainties. The acceleration of AI could be slowed by an external crisis, just as crypto is impacted by regulations and the global economy.
Great power, monumental stakes
The flash of enthusiasm is followed by the shadow of implications. Amodei does not hide his worry : “With great power comes great responsibility.” A phrase which, although cliché, is no less relevant.
If AI reaches and exceeds human capabilities in a wide range of cognitive tasks, the consequences could be radical.
Good things, of course. Never before seen efficiency, medical advances, unprecedented innovations. But also bad ones. Because history shows that when a technology surpasses understanding, the line between miracle and threat becomes dangerously thin.
The rivalry between Anthropic and OpenAI to achieve this technological Holy Grail embodies more than just a race between companies. It symbolizes a new era where man and machine, once collaborators, could become rivals. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, shares this optimistic view and predicts that AGI will be around within five years. But then, who will be the first to cross the finish line? And above all, at what price?
The question remains: what will the world look like in 2026 if AI truly rivals humans? Is this the dawn of an era of prosperity where AI simplifies and enriches our lives? Or, as for the crypto market where the curves rise as quickly as they fall, is this the prelude to a complex, even precarious, balance between profit and drift?
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