All eyes turn to the PCE index, inflation barometer in the United States. Expected this March 28, this figure could trigger an upheaval in the risky asset markets. Bitcoin, in sight, could be the first beneficiary or the first victim. In a climate of geopolitical tensions and monetary uncertainties, this publication is a decisive test to gauge the speculative appetite and the solidity of the bullish momentum on the cryptos.
American statistic under global surveillance
As Friday March 28, the Crypto market holds its breath. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the PCE index that day, a decisive indicator of American inflation. Several signals show that this figure could strongly influence the price of Bitcoin.
The QCP Group, Cryptos Manager based in Singapore, has in particular assertive On the Telegram social network:
The attention will turn to the PCE report on inflation, which could become the next key catalyst.
Here are the key elements of this anticipation:
- The PCE report measures the prices of goods and services paid by American households, and constitutes a major reference for the monetary policy of the Fed;
- The market observes an accumulation of Call options beyond 100,000 dollars for the BTC, but the QCP estimates that this positioning alone should not cause “major volatility”;
- A drop in inflation in this report would be perceived as a favorable signal for risky assets, and would strengthen interest in Bitcoin.
In this context, analysts scrutinize each hint To detect a potential change of course. A figure lower than expectations would reinforce the thesis of monetary relaxation, which could relaunch the appetite for the risk.
Conversely, an upward surprise would rekindle the fears of a more aggressive Fed, which would limit the immediate perspectives for cryptocurrencies.
April, historic month and upward perspectives for Bitcoin
Other factors fuel optimism on the market. Historically, April is particularly favorable for Bitcoin, with an average monthly yield of 12.9 % according to Coinglass data.
Arthur Hayes, co -founder of Bitmex and current Maelstrom CIO, advances an ambitious projection: “Bitcoin is more likely to reach a new historic summit of $ 110,000 before returning to $ 76,500”.
This scenario is based on a conjunction of technical and fundamental indicators deemed favorable. Juan Pellicer's analysis, principal researcher at Intotheblock, confirms this climate of trust. He observes a resumption of institutional commitment, associated with the relaxation of American monetary policy.
“The recent decision of the Federal Reserve to soften its monetary tightening could also promote a short-term price increase,” he said. This context, combined with increased interest in Bitcoin ETFs, feeds the most optimistic projections.
The publication of the PCE could thus constitute the rocking point between consolidation and new rally. However, this perspective remains conditioned by an even uncertain economic environment. The next few weeks should offer a clearer reading of the intentions of large central banks, and the capacity of the Bitcoin to extend its ascending trajectory or to mark a strategic break.
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