While speculation is rife about the institutional adoption of bitcoin, Galaxy Research is tempering expectations. According to the report released on December 27, the US government will not purchase bitcoin in 2025, but may explore new strategies regarding its existing reserves.
A cautious stance on Bitcoin reserves
The US government, which already holds 183,850 BTC (approximately $17.36 billion) spread across 36 known addresses, does not plan to increase its positions in 2025.
Alex Thorn, Director of Research at Galaxy Research, precise that the American authorities will prefer to capitalize on their current assets rather than make new massive purchases.
This position contrasts with the Bitcoin Act 2024, proposed by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, which suggested the acquisition of 200,000 BTC annually over five years. This ambitious project, which aimed to build up a reserve of one million bitcoins over two decades, therefore seems unlikely in the short term.
Galaxy Research's outlook nevertheless suggests that some government departments and agencies may begin to examine a ” expanded bitcoin reserve policy“, paving the way for a possible longer-term strategic evolution.
An international domino effect in perspective
The attitude of the US government could significantly influence the stance of other nations towards bitcoin. In Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently admitted to waiting to see the evolution of the American position before deciding on a possible bitcoin reserve policy.
According to “JW,” another Galaxy analyst, up to five Nasdaq 100 companies and five nation states could nevertheless add bitcoin to their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds in 2025.
This prediction echoes statements by Changpeng Zhao, former CEO of Binance, who anticipates the adoption of bitcoin reserves by several countries, with China potentially in the race.
In short, the US government's wait-and-see position in 2025 does not exclude a significant evolution of the crypto landscape on a global scale. As Ohio's recent initiative with its HB 703 bill suggests, institutional adoption of Bitcoin may first manifest at the state and corporate level before spreading to central governments .
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