The S&P 500 is a historic record thanks to Tech

Carried by an unexpected relaxation to the Middle East and a renewed stock market optimism, the S&P 500 closed this Thursday at 6,141.02 points, bordering on its historic summit. Raising 0.8 %, the emblematic index signs a clear rebound since its hollow of April, despite the persistent uncertainties on commercial prices and regional stability.

A geopolitical and commercial respite that unlocks the markets

The immediate trigger for this new stock market push is to be sought in geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East, with the conclusion of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the fall of oil, ending almost two weeks of armed tensions.

This return to calm has acted as an appeasement signal for the markets, long weighed down by the fear of a large energy conflict. At the same time, investors seem to bet on a moderate scenario concerning American trade policy.

Jay Woods, chief strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, noted That “the market calls the bluff on Trump's pricing threats”. For the latter, the American president will eventually give up his most severe measures.

Here are the key facts that illustrate this tilting of feeling:

• The S&P 500 jumped 0.8 % Thursday to reach 6,141.02 points, flirting with its historic record;

• A resumption of more than 23 % from the lowest in April, almost entirely erasing the losses linked to the fears of recession;

• Since April 2 (date on which Trump has relaunched the trade war), the index won 8.3 %;

• The markets integrate an optimistic scenario, focusing on the postponement or attenuation of customs tariffs;

• Customs duties of 50 % on European imports are suspended until July 9, while the commercial truce with China remains in place until mid-August.

This commercial and geopolitical respite is only based on transient elements. No concrete advance has yet been registered in negotiations with the European Union or China.

Volatility could very quickly return, if the geopolitical tensions resumed or if the threats of prices became effective. For the time being, investors favor a positive reading of on-chain signals … even if it means disregarding short-term risks.

Business resilience and strength of tech strength

If geopolitical relief has allowed an immediate rebound, it is the solidity of business results and the performance of the technological sector that give thickness to this rally.

The results of the first quarter have generally exceeded expectations, despite warnings related to the uncertain price environment. Heavy goods vehicles such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Walmart, Goldman Sachs and Jpmorgan Chase have delivered solid performance, bringing a fundamental base of the clues.

“The return in force of technology and artificial intelligence theme reserves the tone to the market after months focused on international trade,” analyzes Keith Lerner, co-director of investments at Trist Advisory Services.

Euphoria has notably focused on certain average technological values, such as Microchip Technology and Seagate Technology, which have doubled on the stock market since April 8. This appetite for growth values ​​testifies to a return of the appetite for risk, reinforced by short -term macroeconomic perspectives deemed more favorable.

Consequently, several major business banks such as Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Yardeni Research, have revised their goals up for the S&P 500 this year. For Brian Belski from BMO, the expansion of sectoral performance and the stabilization of reactions to political ads draw a second more constructive half. He recently reassessed his annual objective for the 6,700 points index, compared to 6,100 previously.

However, this upward dynamic does not dissipate all the alert signals. The American economy shows several signs of slowdown: industrial production fell twice in three months, retail sales fell in May, especially in the automobile, and the creation of jobs slows down. Added to this is a drop in manufacturing activity and a drop in imports at their lowest level in 16 years.

Some JPMorgan strategists warn against a summer risk combining prices and weakness of growth. In this context, the current valuations, already high, could lack relay if the economic environment is tightened with the return of Trump's customs tariffs.