Until April, the Crypto markets will undergo the backlash of an economic storm with deep roots. An explosive mixture of geopolitical tensions and rigidity of interest rates stifles the appetite for the risk. But behind this chaos hide opportunities. Decryption.
Commercial wars: a predictable cyclone, but devastating for the Crypto market
The spectrum of customs prices has been hovering since January. Donald Trump's announcement on Chinese imports sparked a 17 % drop in bitcoin.
However, this is just a prelude. Nicolai Sondergaard, analyst at Nansen, stresses that fears related to trade barriers remain “the main engine” of the markets.
A persistent blockage until April 2, key date when reciprocal customs duties could come into force. Crypto-active, however disconnected from traditional economies, do not resist this systemic pressure.
Investors flee volatile assets, seeking refuge in the wait -and -see. Ironically: each bitcoin rebound is ephemeral, stifled by new anxiety macroeconomics.
“The resolution of trade tensions could be a major catalyst,” nuances Sondergaard. But the horizon remains blocked.
China, the United States and the EU play a game of failures where each tariff movement shakes the markets.
Cryptos, perceived as a refuge value during previous crises, temporarily lose this status. Capitals are freezing, awaiting a sign of appeasement. Between sanctions and countermeasures, the political calendar now dictates the rate of courses.
Interest rate: the fed vice is tightening
In parallel, American monetary policy adds a layer of complexity. The high FED guiding rates appeal to the appetite for the risk. “The federal reserve awaits real bad news to lower its rates,” said Sondergaard. A paradox: investors hope for an economic slowdown to see a relaxation.
The probabilities of a status quo at the FOMC meeting in May are between 85 %. A clear signal: the priority remains the fight against inflation, despite the risks of recession.
For Iliya Kalchevanalyst at Nexo, this rigidity is only temporary. “Stabilized economic data could relaunch the craze for bitcoin,” he said. But the calendar is tight.
The next publications – GDP, requests for unemployment benefits, PCE index – will be scrutinized as oracles.
Down inflation would open the way to clearer rates, restoring colors to cryptos. In the meantime, the market digests a reality: money is expensive, and speculative investments pay for this reality.
April promises to be a pivotal month. Between the possible activation of customs tariffs and the hopes of a pivot of the Fed, the cryptos navigate between challenges and opportunities. Sweat investors know that these storms forge the markets. Discover, moreover, the prediction of Michael Saylor.
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