According to economic projections and the analysis of international experts, no European economy will be among the top ten world powers by 2050.
Europe is losing its economic influence
“ Europe is in decline and the loss of its influence will be accompanied by the loss of its very high standard of living“, warns Jorge Dezcallar de Mazarredo, former director of the Spanish intelligence services, in an interview with BBC Mundo. His analysis is supported by worrying economic indicators.
The Eurozone is going through a period of stagnation, with forecast growth of just 0.9% in 2024. An alarming figure for a region which still represents a fifth of global GDP, now positioning it behind other major global economic zones.
The historic pillars of the European economy are faltering. Indeed, France and Germany, long considered the continent's locomotives, are showing worrying signs of running out of steam. This weakening occurs in a context already weakened by Brexit which has profoundly shaken European economic cohesion.
Demographic decline aggravates this situation. “ In 1900, Europe had 25% of the world's population and today it has less than 6%. With this 6%, it still holds 17% of world GDP“, reminds Dezcallar, highlighting a growing imbalance.
This reality reveals a striking paradox: Europe maintains a standard of living among the highest in the world, even as its weight in the global economy is inexorably eroding.
This trend is already materializing in concrete changes in the global economic hierarchy. India's recent overtaking of the United Kingdom in terms of GDP eloquently illustrates this historic shift in the economic center of gravity towards Asia.
The challenges of a necessary transformation
“ Europe has no common foreign policy, no common military projection capacity, no common energy policy and no common migration policy.“, analyzes Dezcallar, pointing out the structural weaknesses of the continent.
The Draghi report drives the point home by emphasizing the need to invest massively – 800 billion euros per year – to save the European economy.
The situation is all the more worrying in the face of external threats. The return of Donald Trump to the White House raises the risk of a devastating trade war.
As the former Spanish diplomat recalls: “ Tariffs of 10-20% will harm the European economy, but that's not all. » The divergence on environmental policies could also handicap the competitiveness of European companies on the international scene.
The observation is implacable: “ Today, 62% of global GDP and 65% of the world's population are in the Indo-Pacific region“, observes Dezcallar, thus illustrating the historic shift of economic power from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific.
To avoid irremediable decline, Europe must reinvent its economic model. Without deeper integration of its policies and ambitious modernization of its productive apparatus, the continent risks seeing its economic influence inexorably erode.
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