The ECB freezes rates at 2 % despite inflation and transatlantic tensions

Central banks are at the heart of debates, both in Europe and in the United States. Faced with inflationary pressures and trade tensions, each decision weighs on the global economy. The ECB has chosen prudence: it freeze its rates to 2 %, a strategy perceived as a compromise between stability and uncertainty. But this status quo questions: is it really a controlled break or a flight forward, while the Fed is preparing for a opposite turn?

ECB: Between monetary prudence and commercial thunderstorms

Is Europe already ruined, and the ECB too tired to save it? In any case, she decided to Maintain its deposit rate at 2 %confirming the break started in June. Inflation, close to the objective set, remains controlled with forecasts at 2.1 % in 2025, 1.7 % in 2026 and 1.9 % in 2027. However, growth remains sluggish: +0.1 % in the second quarter, after 0.6 % in the previous one.

Christine Lagarde insists on a “more balanced” vision of risks, but underlines a commercial climate still unstable. American 15 % tariffs on European exports illustrate this challenge. Some sectors, such as pharmaceutics, have found a favorable framework, while others, such as wine and spirits, remain in uncertainty.

The economic impact could increase if the threats of Donald Trump new reprisals are materialized. Lagarde recognized that commercial uncertainty has diminished, but it did not return to a normal level.

The ECB therefore opts for a “meeting by meeting” approach, avoiding any rigid forecast. The markets, which anticipated this decision at 99 %, confirm that the European economy settles in an in-between: neither crisis nor frank recovery.

Fed in front of its dilemma: support the economy or contain inflation

In the United States, the situation is different. Despite inflation which reached 2.9 % in August, its highest level in seven months, The Fed is preparing to lower its rates September 17. The markets estimate the probability of 25 basic points more than 90 %.

The reason? A loss of speed market. In August, only 22,000 job creations were recorded against 75,000 expected, and unemployment benefits have jumped at 263,000, a four -year record.

During the Jackson Hole symposium, Jerome Powell recognized an unprecedented dilemma: ” In the short term, the risks linked to inflation lean on the rise, and those linked to the downward employment »».

This inflection, dictated by political and social pressures, worries certain analysts. Bank of America underlines that:

So far, the Fed has been more concerned with inflation than the labor market. But Powell's speech indicated a possible change of course towards the priority given to the job market.

Between fragile growth and tenacious prices, the American economy illustrates the complexity of a monetary turn which could weigh permanently on the credibility of the Fed.

Between Euro, Dollar and Crypto: the markets are looking for a course

This transatlantic divergence shakes currencies and alternative assets. The euro increased by 0.4 % to 1.1735 dollars, while the greenback index fell. The yields of the American Treasuries have briefly fell below 4 %, reflecting the expectations of monetary relaxation.

The reaction also touched the crypto. After the publication of the ICC, the price of Bitcoin dropped by 0.5 %, going from $ 114,300 to $ 113,700, before rebounding. According to analysts, the market is in a waiting phase:

• If inflation remains moderate, crypto could start a new rally;
• If it accelerates, the dollar is strengthening and the BTC corrects;
• In case of balance, Bitcoin consolidates around $ 113,500.

For many, this dynamic recalls that crypto has become an alternative barometer of monetary tensions. Gold also benefits, progressing slightly after the CPI report. In this fractured global economy, the role of the ECB and the Fed goes beyond borders and redraws the balance between stability and speculation.

Across the Atlantic, the showdown between Donald Trump and the Fed reaches a critical point. The president has already described Jerome Powell as “too late”, and now targets Lisa Cook. For the latter, only justice prevents its dismissal, to the dismay of Trump. A weakened economy and a pressure Fed: the American equation remains explosive.