Bitcoin's weekly RSI returns to an area that the market is watching carefully. This signal is reminiscent of a configuration that appeared at the end of the 2022 bear market, without however offering proof of a reversal. In a still fragile context, this technical reading rekindles the debate on the trajectory of bitcoin and on the market's capacity to transform an early signal into a lasting recovery.
In brief
- Bitcoin's weekly RSI returns to a technical zone that several analysts are watching closely.
- This signal is reminiscent of a pattern seen at the end of the 2022 bear market, before a prolonged bullish phase.
- Trader Jelle believes that a higher low on the RSI could indicate the approach of a long-term low.
- This reading remains cautious, because the market has not yet validated a clear recovery in price.
Bitcoin RSI revives long-watched signal
Bitcoin is sending a technical signal that could mark a long-term low point, while its weekly RSI returns to an area considered sensitive by several analysts. Trader Jelle sees the possible formation of a higher low on the indicator. This element draws attention because it suggests a potential bullish divergence between price and momentum, in a market that has not yet validated a clear recovery.
The interest of this signal also lies in its historical precedent. A comparable pattern appeared at the end of the 2022 bear market, before a bullish phase that lasted for more than a year. This parallel does not constitute confirmation of an identical scenario. On the other hand, it provides a useful benchmark for reading the current situation and reinforces the attention paid to the evolution of the weekly RSI.
- Jelle summary : “When bitcoin’s weekly RSI bottoms higher again, we should start paying attention”. This formula places the weekly RSI at the center of the analysis, much more than the exact shape of the next price movement;
- The analyst also specifies: “it doesn’t matter whether bitcoin makes a higher low, an equivalent low or a lower low”before adding: “when the RSI starts to rise again, the low point will be very close, or already reached”. This reading is presented as the most constructive technical signal of the moment on the weekly unit;
- Bitcoin “signals a possible long-term low point”while remaining cautious in its formulation: it is a signal to watch, not a definitive confirmation of the reversal.
The market remains fragile despite this constructive alert
Jelle does not consider the current decline as an episode already served. He recalls that “previous bear markets have all lasted about a year”and he observes that bitcoin “reached its peak only 23 weeks ago”. His position is explicit: “I am in no hurry to reposition myself for purchase”.
This reservation prevents the current decline from being presented as a phase that has already ended. Another technical figure remains under surveillance: a possible bear flag, interpreted as a signal of weakness likely to open the way to a new break of support, in a configuration close to that observed in January.
The 200-week EMA, a moving average, was reclaimed as support in March 2023, just as the market was emerging from its previous bearish phase. However, it was lost again last month and an analysis even qualified it “unreliable”.
The signal sent by the RSI is not enough, at this stage, to remove doubts about the structure of the market. A long-term indicator is becoming interesting again, but the price of bitcoin is still evolving in contact with technical figures and levels which prevent any clear reading of the current movement.
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