The Arab world, long marked by conflict and dependence on oil, is beginning a metamorphosis. A radical change is taking place, driven by green energies, technology and a new generation eager for peace.
Arab world: the end of a bloody era
Wars are finally running out of steam in the Middle East. Syria has enjoyed relative peace since the fall of the Assad regime last December. The main rebel group now advocates moderate rule. Furthermore, the Lebanon gradually regains its stability after the weakening of Hezbollah.
Iraq displays unequaled stability since 2003. The defeat of Daesh marks a decisive turning point. Only Yemen remains mired in persistent conflict, with the Houthis continuing their attacks on international shipping.
The withdrawal of foreign powers contributes significantly to this lull. Iran is gradually losing its regional influence following the setbacks suffered by its allies. Russia, preoccupied elsewhere, can no longer interfere as before.
The green revolution of the Arab desert
The sun, long perceived as a curse, becomes a major asset. Investments in solar energy explode in the region. This energy transition offers unprecedented economic prospects.
The development of seawater desalination is progressing rapidly. New technologies make the process more efficient and less expensive. Israel is already leading the way by reusing wastewater for agriculture.
The post-oil era could paradoxically favor development. The “resource curse” would fade, pushing regimes to diversify their economies. Solar energy, more difficult to monopolize than oil, could reduce regional tensions.
Favorable Arab demographics
The Middle East benefits from an ideal “demographic dividend”. The active population is increasing while the number of dependent people is decreasing. This situation creates optimal conditions for economic growth.
The Gulf States have the financial means necessary to support regional development. The Israeli technology industry could also, in a context of lasting peace, transform the region into an innovation hub.
The promising future of the Arab world
In fifty years, the Middle East could become a global center for green energy, industry and technology. Furthermore, this transformation is based on solid fundamentals: natural resources, strategic geographic position and human capital.
The Middle East, which saw the birth of the first civilizations, could well regain its place at the forefront. History, particularly through the example of the Chinese rise, teaches us that the greatest transformations often occur where we least expect them.
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