Michael Saylor's company, Strategy (ex-microstrategy), could soon integrate the prestigious S&P 500 index. According to analyst Jeff Walton, it would be 91 % likely to achieve it in the next 5 days. But for this, a crucial condition must be fulfilled: Bitcoin must remain above a decisive threshold.
In short
- Strategy (ex-microstrategy) has 91 % chance of joining the prestigious S&P 500 index in the next 5 days.
- Eligibility depends entirely on the maintenance of bitcoin over 95,240 dollars by June 30.
- The company currently has 592,345 bitcoins, the largest portfolio among listed companies.
- If successful, Strategy would become the second Crypto company to join the S&P 500 after Coinbase last May.
Strategy of Michael Saylor on the two fingers to integrate the S&P 500
Financial analyst Jeff Walton has just delivered a prediction that electrifies the markets: Strategy displays 91 % probabilities to integrate the S&P 500 in the coming days. This estimate is based on a rigorous statistical analysis of the historical behavior of Bitcoin since September 2014.
Walton scrutinized more than 3,900 periods of six consecutive days to establish its calculations. Over this decade of observations, Bitcoin has dropped by more than 10 % only in 8.7 % of cases on such times.
“” The remaining 91 % of these periods did not experience a decrease of 10 % “, precise The analyst in his last video.
The rule is now clear for Strategy: Bitcoin must imperatively stay above 95,240 dollars until June 30.
Below this critical floor, the company could not display ” profits in the second quarter higher than those of the last three quarters combined ». However, this condition constitutes one of the fundamental criteria of eligibility for the S&P 500.
This news gives directly from the adoption by strategy of the ASU 2023-08 accounting rule since January. This regulation requires that Bitcoin assets be reassessed at their fair market value, with a direct impact on the financial results of each period.
A bet on the story that is repeated
The probabilities clearly play in favor of Michael Saylor while time is rushed. The more the end of June is approaching, the more the chances of strategy improve mathematically. Over five days, the probability of avoiding a 10 % drop climbed to 92.4 %. It even reached 97.6 % on a single day.
This favorable temporal dynamic contrasts with the recent volatility of the Crypto markets. The geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel recently plunged bitcoin under the symbolic bar of $ 100,000 for the first time since May.
At the time of Walton's analysis, the crypto evolved around $ 106,044, offering comfortable safety margin compared to the critical threshold.
The stake greatly exceeds the simple case of strategy. If the operation succeeded, the company would join Coinbase as the second Crypto company to integrate the prestigious American index.
Integration into the S&P 500 would represent a major turning point for Saylor's Bitcoin strategy. With its 592,345 Bitcoins in a wallet, Strategy already holds the world record among listed companies.
The next few days will be decisive for Michael Saylor. If Bitcoin remains solid, Strategy could engrave its name in American financial history. A consecration for a company that has bet its future on the massive adoption of Bitcoin.
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