While financial markets vacillate under the weight of monetary uncertainties and political tensions, a daring projection relaunches the debate. Bitcoin could reach $ 135,000, according to Standard Charterd. In a recent note, the British bank shakes up the established scenarios by affirming that the current dynamics of the market invalid the post-Halving historical schemes. This change in tone, emanating from a major player in traditional finance, restores strength to upward anticipations, when the BTC is starting a new acceleration phase.
In short
- Standard Charterd plans that Bitcoin could reach $ 135,000 very soon, or even $ 200,000 by the end of 2025.
- The bank calls into question a historic cyclic model which announced a post-halving drop.
- Unlike expectations, Bitcoin continues above $ 120,000 after the April 2024 halving.
- This dynamic is part of a seasonal upward trend nicknamed “Uptuber”.
A historic model jostled according to Standard Chartered
In a shared note, Geoff Kendrick, global manager of cryptos research at Standard Charterd, calls into question one of the most anchored cyclic schemes in the analysis of the crypto market: the drop in bitcoin prices 18 months after a halving.
“Bitcoin has dismissed a scheme which, until then, saw the prices fall 18 months after the halving”,, observed-Al. However, this cycle should have, according to this logic, lead to a notable withdrawal at the end of the year, in the continuity of the Halving of April 2024. This is clearly not the case. Bitcoin remains strong, even in acceleration, crossing the threshold of 120,000 dollars this week.
This dynamic seems to confirm that the Crypto market is in the process of escaping its former structural landmarks. To support this idea, several factual elements support the thesis of a new post-halving paradigm:
- Bitcoin is currently exchanging at 120,606 dollars, up 1.71 % over 24 hours;
- The price had already reached 120,286 dollars the day before, marking an increase of almost 8 % over the week;
- This increase is in a trend nicknamed “Uptuber”well known to observers for its typical upward dynamic in the last quarter.
Kendrick stresses that this trajectory is unprecedented compared to the post-halving cycle observed in 2018–2019, where the market had remained inert despite a Shutdown of the American government similar to that currently underway.
From massive flows to Bitcoin ETF
Beyond cyclical considerations, Standard Charted points a fundamental element in the current increase in Bitcoin: institutional demand. In his note, Geoff Kendrick specifies that net entries in the Bitcoin ETF now reach $ 58 billion, including 23 billion generated in 2025 alone.
He declares: “I anticipate at least $ 20 billion additional dollars by the end of the year, an amount that would make my forecast of $ 200,000 possible for Bitcoin to this deadline”. The analyst therefore suggests that the current dynamics could not only lead to a peak at $ 135,000, but potentially at 200,000 dollars by the end of the year, if the flows are maintained.
On the horizon, several implications can be envisaged. First, this rise of institutional actors could help reduce the historical volatility of Bitcoin, while accentuating its correlation with global macroeconomic indicators. Then, the increase in flows towards ETFs feeds a form of financial legitimization of the BTC, likely to attract capital still on the sidelines of the Crypto market at the end of the year which promises to be breathless.
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