Warning signals are multiplying around Solana. While the SOL struggles to stabilize above a key technical threshold, derivatives market data reflect a clear decline in bullish positions. At the same time, on-chain activity is slowing and network revenues are eroding. As we approach $80, a level now scrutinized by investors, the question is no longer that of a simple technical rebound, but of the very solidity of market support.
In brief
- Derivatives markets are signaling a marked withdrawal of bullish positions on Solana.
- Open interest falls sharply while short sellers gain conviction.
- The strategic threshold of $80 becomes the main market equilibrium point.
- All of the indicators question the market's capacity to sustainably support the SOL.
Derivatives Markets Signal Capitulation of Bull Traders
Solana's price behavior reflects a loss of momentum that is taking hold. For several weeks, the market has been trying without success to regain key technical thresholds, which maintains a climate of hesitation. The current sequence comes after a marked rejection in mid-January, followed by a sudden dropout in early February. This inability to bounce back sustainably fuels operator caution.
Data from derivatives markets confirm this change in posture. The massive contraction in open futures positions, combined with unbalanced funding rates, indicates that traders are now favoring reducing risk rather than taking new bullish positions. Several numerical indicators illustrate this evolution:
- The repeated failure to get back above $89 over the last two weeks;
- The rejection at $145 in mid-January;
- A fall to $67.60 during the February 6 crash;
- The 75% drop in open interest on SOL futures compared to the peak of $13.5 billion reached five months earlier;
- The annualized funding rate for short positions at 20%, a level described as rare and aggressive.
When funding rates remain negative for more than a week, this reflects a strong conviction among short sellers. For comparison, Ethereum's annualized rate stood at 1%, below the neutral level of 6%, without showing a comparable imbalance.
A declining on-chain activity and a dependence on memecoins
Beyond the derivatives, the internal dynamics of the network are of concern. Weekly revenue from decentralized applications on Solana fell to $22.8 million, their lowest level since October 2024. Also, memecoin launch platform Pump generated $9.1 million over the period, or 40% of the network's total revenue. This concentration underlines the strong exposure of the ecosystem to flows linked to memecoins and the activity of individual investors.
At the same time, investment products reflect a confidence gap. Solana-backed ETFs total $2.1 billion in assets under management, compared to $15.8 billion for Ethereum, a gap of 86%. The contrast is also seen in the revenue structure: the main revenue-generating applications on Ethereum include Sky, Flashbots and Aave, major decentralized finance infrastructures. Solana, for her part, remains more dependent on the speculative craze.
The $80 threshold is now focusing investors' attention. Between contraction of derivatives and slowdown in activity, Solana is operating in a zone of uncertainty. Some anticipate a marked rebound, going so far as to estimate that Solana could double bitcoin this year. The market is waiting for tangible signals before deciding.
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