Solana is undergoing a marked correction phase after the break of a key support, in a market context dominated by the decline in Bitcoin. Discover the technical outlook for the future evolution of SOL.
In brief
- Technical analysis: Marked withdrawal below $200, in a context of technical correction after a prolonged bullish excess.
- Technical Levels: Major Support at $170; resistance at $237 then $253, possible reversal zones.
- Analysis on derivatives: Reflux of speculative positioning, selling dominance on flows, massive liquidation on the long side.
- Forecast: Fragile market — holding above $170 supports a bullish scenario; break would open a corrective phase towards $156 or even $126.
Technical analysis of Solana (SOL)
Solana's spot price is trading around $194, marking a weekly decline of around 14%. This decline follows in the wake of Bitcoin, leading to a generalized decline in the crypto market. Spot volumes, however, increased by +47% to $14.8 billion, reflecting an increase in trade and renewed activity during the correction phase.
Over the long term, the SMA 200 confirms an upward dynamic, with the market maintaining a basic ascending structure. In the medium term, the SMA 50 stabilizes, suggesting a waiting phase between buyers and sellers. On the other hand, the SMA 20 shifts into a downtrend, marking a loss of momentum. Oscillators confirm this reversal with downward momentum, a sign of a fading buying pressure.
Solana Technical Levels (SOL)
The market is now trading below major resistance levels at $237, $253 then $295 (ATH), areas likely to act as distribution thresholds in the event of a limited recovery. On the downside, key supports lie at $170, $156 and then $126, representing potential accumulation zones where a rebound could begin. The daily break of support at $190 confirms short-term structural weakening. The monthly pivot point at $217 remains above the current price, validating a negative technical bias. The volume profile shows a high value zone at $237 and a low zone at $244, framing an equilibrium zone whose rupture could lead to a new episode of volatility.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elyfeinvestor and popularizer in the cryptocurrency market.
Derivatives analysis (SOL/USDT)
Derivative indicators reinforce the idea of a retreating market. Open interest is falling, a sign of a withdrawal from speculative positions. The CVD highlights seller dominance, illustrating a flow of capital mainly oriented towards sales. The massive liquidations recorded on long positions confirm a purge of leverage after the recent decline. The funding rate, which has returned to neutral after a brief negative phase, reflects a rebalancing of the market, without excessive pressure on one side or the other.
The selling liquidation zone, between $230 and $250, appears to be a critical threshold: crossing above could reinforce the upward dynamic through a squeeze effect, but also serve as a distribution zone if the market remains fragile.
In contrast, the long liquidation zone, located between $190 and $174, remains vulnerable: a break below these levels could accelerate the decline, while constituting a point of interest for strategic accumulation.
Solana (SOL) price forecast
Bullish scenario:
- Conditions: Maintaining above support at $170.
- Targets: $210 / $237 / $253 then $295 (ATH).
- Potential: Around +52% from current level.
Bearish scenario:
- Conditions: Support broken at $170.
- Goals: $156 / $126 / $95.
- Potential: Approximately –51% from current level.
Conclusion
Solana is entering a consolidation phase after a marked correction. The underlying structure remains bullish, but the short-term dynamic is weakening, supported by a visible disengagement on derivatives markets. The $170 threshold now stands out as a critical pivot for the continuation of the trend.
In this context, it will be essential to closely monitor the price reaction at strategic levels in order to confirm or adjust current forecasts. Finally, remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria, and that the price of cryptocurrencies can evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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