Solana Bullish Resumption: Impact of ETF Announcements - Crypto Analysis for July 3, 2024

While the entire crypto market is in a phase of indecision, Solana bounces for the third time on the $125 support. Let’s take a look at the future outlook for the SOL price.

Location of Solana (SOL)

After peaking at $211, Solana suffered a decline of more than 40%, gradually bringing its price back down to $120. This price level acted as support for SOL, allowing it to benefit from a bullish momentum that unfortunately ended at $190. Thus, this last price level makes it a notable resistance. Recently, Solana's price has rebounded once again around $125. To the delight of the latest entrants, Canadian institution 3iQ and American institutions Vaneck and 21Share have officially filed to issue a Solana spot ETF. Naturally, optimism about the crypto is being felt. Some people do not hesitate to imagine a Solana price multiplied by 9 if these ETF applications are accepted.

However, the market's reaction to this news has not impacted the cryptocurrency as much as Bitcoin did during the same phenomenon. Indeed, the crypto still seems heavy. This can be partly explained by a drop in Bitcoin weighing on the entire market. At the time of writing, Solana's price is trading around $145. Solana's medium and long-term trend remains bullish. However, the fact that it is below its 50-day moving average casts doubt on the continuation of this trend. Fortunately, we can be reassured by the 200-day moving average, which is still positioned below the crypto price and remains oriented upwards. Note that these last MAs are getting closer and closer, suggesting future volatility to be taken into account. On the price dynamics side, we can naturally observe that it has picked up again, as evidenced by the price of Solana itself as well as the oscillators. All of these elements demonstrate a real buying interest, suggesting that the Solana crypto is about to form a bottom, a chart pattern suggesting a bullish continuation.

SOL/USD Price Chart DailySOL/USD Price Chart Daily
SOL/USD Price Chart Daily

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now a trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of self-employed traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Focus on Solana (SOLUSDT) derivatives

The open interest of SOL/USDT contracts has evolved in the same way as the cryptocurrency. This suggests that speculators have mostly taken long positions. This hypothesis is supported by positive and slightly increasing funding rates, illustrating a participation of traders mainly oriented towards buying. On the liquidation side, they remain weak and do not send concrete signals. Nevertheless, it can be noted that the most significant liquidations took place during the last bullish impulses, suggesting a capitulation of sellers on the crypto.

Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate SOL/USDT in 4HOpen Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate SOL/USDT in 4H
Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate SOL/USDT

The three-month SOL/USDT liquidation heatmap shows that the crypto has broken out of the liquidation zone around $137. This has not generated any buying interest, at least not directly. Indeed, Solana first dipped below $125 before repositioning itself above $135 and continuing its rise. It is also below this last price level that an apparent liquidation zone has appeared. However, the most pronounced one is above the current SOL price, precisely below $180. The price approaching these levels could trigger a massive triggering of orders, thus increasing the risk of a period of increased volatility for Solana. These zones therefore represent a crucial point of interest for investors.

Heatmap of Liquidations on SOL/USDTHeatmap of Liquidations on SOL/USDT
Heatmap of Liquidations on SOL/USDT

Assumptions for the Solana (SOL) price

  • If Solana price holds above $125, we could anticipate a bullish continuation to the $170 level, or even $190. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, could be $210, and beyond that, Solana's all-time high at $265. At that point, this would represent an increase of over 83%.
  • If Solana fails to hold above $125, we could be looking at a return to the $110 level. The next support to consider, if the bearish move continues, would be around $100, or even $90. Further down, we can see the support at $86. At this point, this would represent a decline of less than 40%.


Solana has benefited from a recovery at its support level established since April. ETF requests by several institutions have generated notable optimism in the market, although the impact has not been as strong as expected. Despite some short-term uncertainties, the overall trend remains positive, driven by favorable price momentum and growing buying interest. That said, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at the various key levels to confirm or deny current assumptions. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve rapidly depending on other more fundamental factors.

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